Bang on !!...UAC forms off Kerala coast at 850 hpa....weak vortex seen in S.I. Karnataka in 1200Z charts.
RAINFALL FOR TOP 50 DISTRICTS ALL INDIA OCTOBER 2012. from GSB....on Stats and Analysis Page..another quality input from GSB...
Updated @ 8.00 pm Sunday, 4th November...
For North India, earliest WD (N-1) i see is around 11th/12th for entering India, and a day earlier for Pakistan...
Waiting for more Contest Entries..Please Note, Entries can be changed/ revised Before 15th of the Month...
Posted @ 7 pm Sunday, 3rd November:
Forecast for Sunday 4th / Monday 5th and Tuesday 6th:
Sunday 4th: Most of the clouding seen on Sunday clearing away.
Rain lingering along AP Orissa coast and Bengal coast. Heavy rainfall around Vizag. Some light rains around Goa and Chennai/Bangalore in the evening.
Much of Maharashtra will be dry.
Monday 5th: Heavier rainfall continues around the Vizag regions. Around 2 days, areas around Vizag get good showers.
Odd thundershower popping up around Chennai and Bangalore.
Cloudy and light rains in AP and adjoining Vidarbha.
Cloudy and light showers in coastal Bengal.
Light/Medium showers increase in S.I. Karnataka and adjoining TN.
Tuesday 6th: Rains continue in S.I.Karnataka and adjoining AP and TN.
Decrease in the other AP regions.
An UAC, with a trough running into Sri Lanka, may possibly form in the Arabian Sea off the Southern Kerala coast.
Northern India remains clear and dry. WD after Wednesday over Pakistan (maybe).
City Forecasts only for Sunday 4th/Monday 5th/Tuesday 6th:
Sunday/Monday/Tuesday: Dry and sunny. Warm day as Easterlies dominate. Days will be around 34c. But nights will be23c on Sunday and 21c next two nights.
Outer townships also dry and cooling down after Monday by around 2c.
Pune will be dry too and cooling after Monday by a couple fo degrees initially.
Delhi NCR : Dry and good NW winds will keep haze away. Days around 30c and nights pleasant at 15c. Cooling after Wednesday.
Sunday/Monday: Remains cloudy with light rains in some parts and areas. Daily rainfall around 5-7 mms.
Tuesday: Sunny, but clouds increase again by evening. Sharp shower possible in some areas at night.
Sunday/Monday: Southerly winds will dominate the days. The odd thundershower pops up in the evening lashing some areas. Rainfall upto 20 mms/ day possible.
Tuesday: Potential of thundershower less.
Kathmandu remains dry next week. With temperatures in the 23-08c range. Expect a fall in nights after Thursday.
Pakistan also remains dry and cold weather settling in the Northern regions. Nights are cold in the Balochistan plains with Sibbi at 8c. Colder in the coming week, but dry.
Sharing a past Similar Weather situation..Chances 40% of it happening tomorrow..
Vagaries has projected a vortex (see below) around the interior Karnataka region by tomorrow, Monday. This will be the result of a bloated (non effective) low region of 1008 mb covering entire South India. The vortex will form on Tuesday within, temporarily.
Now, out of interest, i went thru certain similar situations. I checked, that on some occasions a line of wind dis-continuity forms north of the vortex.
That is when the low region was big enough.
In such a case, the cloudings from the vortex can stretch into interior Madhya Maharashtra and along the Karnataka and Maharshtra Western Ghats. Maybe on Monday or Tuesday.
Please note, I am sharing a past weather occurance, and chances of vortex spreading its clouding North are 40% as of now ....may or may not happen...
Rest forecast given Below in yesterday's blog..