Saturday, November 03, 2012

Posted 11.45Pm Monday:

Bang on !!...UAC forms off Kerala coast at 850 hpa....weak vortex seen in S.I. Karnataka in 1200Z charts.


RAINFALL FOR TOP 50 DISTRICTS ALL INDIA OCTOBER 2012. from GSB....on Stats and Analysis Page..another quality input from GSB...

Updated @ 8.00 pm Sunday, 4th November...

For North India, earliest WD (N-1) i see is around 11th/12th for entering India, and a day earlier for Pakistan...

Waiting for more Contest Entries..Please Note, Entries can be changed/ revised Before 15th of the Month...
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Posted @ 7 pm Sunday, 3rd November:
Forecast for Sunday 4th / Monday 5th and Tuesday 6th:

Sunday 4th:  Most of the clouding seen on Sunday clearing away.
Rain lingering along AP Orissa coast and Bengal coast. Heavy rainfall around Vizag. Some light rains around Goa and Chennai/Bangalore in the evening. 
Much of Maharashtra will be dry.

Monday 5th: Heavier rainfall continues around the Vizag regions. Around 2 days, areas around Vizag get good showers. 
Odd thundershower popping up around Chennai and Bangalore. 
Cloudy and light rains in AP and adjoining Vidarbha. 
Cloudy and light showers in coastal Bengal. 
Light/Medium showers increase in S.I. Karnataka and adjoining TN.

Tuesday 6th: Rains continue in S.I.Karnataka and adjoining AP and TN. 
Decrease in the other AP regions.

An UAC, with a trough running into Sri Lanka, may possibly form in the Arabian Sea off the Southern Kerala coast.

Northern India remains clear and dry. WD after Wednesday over Pakistan (maybe).

City Forecasts only for Sunday 4th/Monday 5th/Tuesday 6th:

Mumbai City: 
Sunday/Monday/Tuesday: Dry and sunny. Warm day as Easterlies dominate. Days will be around 34c. But nights will be23c on Sunday and 21c next two nights.
Outer townships also dry and cooling down after Monday by around 2c.

Pune will be dry too and cooling after Monday by a couple fo degrees initially.

Delhi NCR : Dry and good NW winds will keep haze away. Days around 30c and nights pleasant at 15c. Cooling after Wednesday.

Kolkata: 
Sunday/Monday: Remains cloudy with light rains in some parts and areas. Daily rainfall around 5-7 mms.
Tuesday: Sunny, but clouds increase again by evening. Sharp shower possible in some areas at night.

Chennai: 
Sunday/Monday: Southerly winds will dominate the days. The odd thundershower pops up in the evening lashing some areas. Rainfall upto 20 mms/ day  possible.
Tuesday: Potential of thundershower less.

Kathmandu remains dry next week. With temperatures in the 23-08c range. Expect a fall in nights after Thursday.

Pakistan also remains dry and cold weather settling in the Northern regions. Nights are cold in the Balochistan plains with Sibbi at 8c. Colder in the coming week, but dry.




Sharing a past Similar Weather situation..Chances  40% of it happening tomorrow..

Vagaries has projected a vortex (see below)  around the interior Karnataka region by tomorrow, Monday. This will be the result of a bloated (non effective) low region of 1008 mb covering entire South India. The vortex will form on Tuesday within, temporarily.

Now, out of interest, i went thru certain similar situations. I checked, that on some occasions a line of wind dis-continuity forms north of the vortex. 
That is when the low region was big enough. 
In such a case, the cloudings from the vortex can stretch into interior Madhya Maharashtra and along the Karnataka and Maharshtra Western Ghats. Maybe on Monday or Tuesday. 

Please note, I am sharing a past weather occurance, and chances of vortex spreading its clouding North are 40% as of now ....may or may not happen...

Rest forecast given Below in yesterday's blog..


28 comments:

Pradeep said...

Sir, for chennai is it 40 mm in total for Sunday and monday

rajesh said...

pradeep: Sorry the confusion. Yes, its avg 20mm/day .

Abhijit said...

Very dense fog has engulf Badlapur from early morning today. Min temp is 21.7 C here. Some fog snaps on Vagaries FB page.

Neeraj said...

Kathmandu:
yes now, in 7 C ~ 24 C range. but very dry. days are still hot ; more so with intense solar radiation; what i mean is it is cool in the shades, but directly in the sun, u can feel the radiation piercing your skin.. he he he.
Anyways, any chance of any rain in the coming days/weeks ??

Pradeep said...

Karnataka too getting rains from the trough which existed from the remnants of Cyclone Nilam

in mm ending 8.30 am on 04.11.2012

Kedinje 56.4
Nandi Hills 52
Mulikar 47.2
Belthangadi 42
Channagiri 37.2
Yalduru 36
Kerveshe 35
Puttige 31.4
Ramgiri 31
Sangabettu 31
Mudabidri 26.4
Kaiwara 24
Ajekar 24
Linganamakki 23.6
Mavathur 22.8
Amasebail 22
Madhugiri 22
Itakadibbanahalli 21.2
Chickjajur 20.5
Devarahalli 20.2
Joldal 20
Holalkere 20
Chickkaballapur 20

Pradeep said...

AP battered from Remnants of Cyclone Nilam

in mm ending 8.30 am on 04.11.2012

Narasapur - 314
Yelamanchili - 248
Maruteru - 237
Kakinada - 203
Ankapalle - 171
Vizianagaram - 155
Vishakapatnam - 149
Amadalavalasa - 100

Abhijit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Abhijit said...

Badlapur was having max temp as 33 C at 2.30pm today

Abhijit said...

Some afternoon cumulus cloud rising seen between 2pm to 4pm from yesterday here in Badlapur, but is getting flatten quickly or just may be an hallow thunder heads ! And clears up after 5pm.

Abhijit said...

From last 2 days Pressure fallen also seen around 1005 mb in evening time & Humidity is also around 70 %.

Abhijit said...

Today light fog as visibility is 3kms in Badlapur. Min temp was 20.7 C @ 6am today .

Puneet Bangera said...

@ rajesh sir.It seems that Low Pressure Area Has Slipped Back To Bay Of Bengal Off Andhra Coast.Will it b able to intensify & make a reverse swing.

Puneet Bangera said...

Western Ghats is building TS from Ratnagiri to Udupi.

GSB said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rajesh said...

GSB: put up a "must read" on vagaries FB as well..are you member of fb vagaries ..?

rajesh said...

GSB: Check discussions on your analysis on FB...

Puneet: Low has not slipped into sae..its a wide big UAC now..and watch for internal UAC now..answered on fb also, in the afternoon

GSB said...

Rajesh sir, just had a quick glance at the FB page.. using my wife's account. Still very wary of social media myself...but you guys are having good interaction out there I can see....maybe in the future sometime..

Abhijit said...

Badlapur was having 19 C as min temp @ 6am today morning. Today Badlapur having one of the very thick denser fog covered. Actually light fog started to fall after 12am onwards only then from 6am onwards it is increasing and increasing. Now 7.40am but fog intensity is at it's peak level. Sun looking like moon here. And no sun rays are falling on ground. No vehicles on road can be seen just sound of vehicles can be heard.

sam khan said...

today morning nasik temperature was 13 Degree's celcius. this clearly shows some parts of maharahtra are much cooler then delhi, for delhi being 15 degree celcius in the morning.

sam khan said...

western ghats n konkan areas including some parts of Goa are likely to experience , thundery activity, for 2 - 3 days.

rajesh said...

Tuesday Morning: Lodhi 12.4c, Gurgaon 12.5c, Faridabad 13c and S'Jung 13.8c.
Nasik (Mah) 12.3c..

Wednesday was the day predicted by vagaries..started on Tuesday..

Abhijit said...

Also reports(announcement was going on Mumbai CST station) came at 9am from Mumbai CST Railway station (Central Railway) that due to thick fog cover between Karjat- Badlapur- Kalyan route so local trains from that section are running late and so arriving late towards CST station.

rajesh said...

Vagaries' Maximum today (Tuesday) 30.9c..not bad..

Abhijit said...

Badlapur max temp continues to be at 33 C today also .

sset said...

Rajesh Sir - Will NE monsoon revive over TN or this is the end? As of Oct average rain over TN is just 300-400mm far less than normal average rain of 1000mm.

Pradeep - thanks for readings, wish North AP rains would have come to TN.

Thanks

sam khan said...

chances are very low for TN to reach 1000 mm this year, but one can never say hw the weather might change .anyway good luck.

Abhijit said...

Today light fog here in Badlapur as visibility is above 3kms.

Yesterday's alto cumulus clouds over S. Madhya Mah moved more north and today morning Badlapur also having few patches of clouds presence.

Today Badlapur having 19.3 C as min temp & nearby IMD's Karjat AWS showing 18.7 C @ 6.30am.

@ Rajesh Sir.So as per sat image whether today convective rains possible for S.Madhya Mah including Pune region ?

And instead of east coast(i.e Chennai looking dry for next 5days or may be just light shower ) now West coast looking like active along Kerala , Coastal Karnataka & even up to some extent till Goa for next 72hrs at least !

Abhijit said...

Pune's min temp raised today to 18.2 C from yesterdays min 15.6C ! So cumulus clouds hovering last night responsible !