1. A low has formed in the South Andaman, at 10N and 95E. Likely to strengthen a bit.
2. N-3 is moving East into Balochistan. May enter North Pakistan on Wednesday with gusty winds in Balochistan and Pak Punjab. The low over Arabia is now an UAC off the Oman coast. Cloudy weather for Karachi tomorrow.
Posted on Monday Night:
A Low is likely to form in the Eastern Bay, East of the Andaman Islands, by the 28th of November. Initially, on 29th, it will strengthen a bit, and move Westwards, and cover the Bay Islands.
I see some hindrance in the further westward track. As of today, the SST around the Islands is 30-31c. The SST progressively decreases as we move west. And, the SST, as we reach the Southern India coast is 28c and around 27c in the NE Indian coastline. That, would deter the further westwards track of the system beyond 93E.
In fact, there is a 40% chance, that the system could even move Northwards along the Myanamar coast.
Let me stress, that is the synoptic situation today, and my track estimate is based on this scenario.
N-3, has formed, and the trough at sea level runs sloping NE from 50E to 60E. A 1010 low is pushing into the Oman region from the West, the Arabian peninsula.
Rains expected in Muscat and Dubai next 2 days due to this low. This Low will push NE into the coastal Iran region.
N-3 precipitation can be expected in Balochistan and Western coastline of Pakistan on Tuesday, 27th. Karachi will be cloudy.
Precipitation moves into Northern plains of Pakistan and moderate precipitation in the extreme North of Pakistan. Snow in the mountains and light rains and cold days in Islamabad on Wednesday.
N-3 moves into Northern India on 28th. Rain and snow in Kashmir, HP from Wednesday thru Friday. Thursday, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi get light rains and cloudy weather. Snow expected in Gulmarg, Sonmarg, Pahalgam and other hill resorts. Chances of first snow of season for Srinagar on Thursday.
Delhi NCR will be cloudy and cool on Thursday. Day will be at a high of 22/23c, with light rains. Nights will be around 12c.
Kolkata, dry. Temperatures at night will be pleasant at around 14/15c for the next 2 nights. With N winds, day will be cool too. Winds turn NW from Thursday.
Mumbai: Another warm day on Tuesday, with days at 32/33c. and night around 19c at Scruz and 22c at Colaba on Tuesday morning. With N winds from Wednesday, days will drop to 30/31c and nights by about 2c.
Hottest in India today, Monday, was Ahmadnagar, 34.6c....a surprise entry today. Followed by Panjim at 34.5c. Lowest in Plains, 6.8c in Churu and Maharashtra 12.3c at Nasik.
From 27th morning to 30th morning, 4 night temperatures remaining before the results of the November contest !