Thursday, November 15, 2012

Latest as on 5.30 pm IST Thursday:

N-1...Stationary at 30N and 62E at 1010 mb...Movement expected: NE.
BB-11...W/NW movement and at 12N and 87.5E at 1006 mb. Movement expected : NW.

Readers, Please check all your individual entries and please inform if any corrections are needed...all alterations close 15th mid night for November. 
Entries for December open till 15th December...


On Thursday morning, Western Disturbance N-1 is now a low at 30N and 62E. As a medium strength system. Expected to move along the trough formed into extreme north Pakistan and into Kashmir, Northern most Punjab and HP....

BB-11: Several isobar charts show slightly varied positions of the low. But, summarising, i would position the system on Thursday 15th, at 1006 mb, at 11N and 90E. That means a Northerly movement from the last "Flash Snippet" put up on Vagaries.

Yes, was expecting a Westwards track for BB-11 last week. The initial reasoning was, as this low was thought to form  on 14th around 8N, and not 10N as occurred.  
It would have been a different scenario had it formed as forecasted.
BB-12,  would have "pushed" the larger Bay trough west, along with BB-11. 

Now, with BB-12 delayed a bit  vis-a-vis the movement of BB-11, i would think BB-11 would move North or NW. Today, 200 hpa jet streams are consistent at a Northerly direction, and the expected Bay trough has not gained strength. 
Still, if the next system moves in soon, we could  have a bit of a chance for  BB-12 to arrive and move BB-11 into the East Indian coast near AP/Orissa, maybe ?

4 comments:

Junaid said...

most parts of the country is cooling down nd the minimums of many places are below normal,,but minimum temp in mumbai isnt decresing,,infact one can see 32+ max temp only in the three states of gujarat maharashtra and rajasthan currently

GSB said...

Sorry for the statistical blunder Rajesh sir!! I think too much like a market fellow!!

Please round off the numbers to the nearest highest decimal. For e.g 18.25c will become 18.3c and (-)2.75c will become (-)2.8c and so on..

Apologies again for the trouble !!

Abhijit said...

From last night only nip was felt here in Badlapur. And Today morning very chilly here with total clear sky & almost no fog.. So min temp here was 16.7 @ 6am today.

Shitij said...

@Rajesh Sir as you have said in your blog that western disturbance(N1) will move in NE direction so how it will affect Jammu and kashmir??