Friday, November 16, 2012

Updated Saturday Morning





***** Refer "Whats to happen Now" below 

BB-11 has defied and challenged ALL International weather models (not comparing Vagaries with them) and taken its own course, first North and now West. 
Positioned at 13.6N AND 88.7E, West of Chennai.

It is necessary to understand the forecasts and estimates given by various models. No model goes on guess work. There are certain presumptions and assumptions, with reasoning behind each forecast. And, forecasts may be diametrically opposite to each other. 

a) NOGAP as on today (Friday) forecasts a W/NW movement towards TN/AP coast, and become a depression. (http://ow.ly/i/18830)
Vagaries also had subscribed to this view from the initial stage. The reason behind this forecast by all models: TD-25 was to send in a pulse, and form a low/depression (BB-12) in the Andaman region by the 16th and influence the initial movements of BB-11. The advent of BB-12  would have curved the trough in which BB-11 is nestled towards the West. And, the 200 hpa jet streams were seen flowing towards the NW in the Southern Bay. 
BB-11 would have moved into TN as a depression.Though some models like IMD GFS and FNMOC had mentioned this track, they changed it as they observed the change in the jet streams and pressure "play" in the Bay. 

b) Some models predicted, FNMOC, UKM, COLA a North/North-East track, presuming the ridge in the Bay will prevail. Ridge ? Yes, instead of a trough. This ridge in our seas was dependant on the High in the Phillipines region.TD-25 was nestled between these 2 Highs. 

What's actually happening now ? The extreme East Phillipines ridge has weakend, the TD-25 is fizzling out, the parent pulse itself is fading.
BB-11, is now moving West. But, the low is stagnent in strength, and seems to be getting elongated. Now, this elongation was expected, and BB-12 was to get more strengthened by merging in this "big" low. But where is BB-12 ? 

*****Ok, leave all this, what's to happen now? What can happen if BB-12 does not come ? Well, BB-11 will be on its own, and merge into the larger region of 1008 mb. Till survival, NW movemnet not ruled out for the next 18-24 hrs. That is, it will elongate to form a huge Low region of 1008 mb(weaken) in the Bay. Showers will push into Oriissa/West Bengal coast from 18th/19th.
Showers also possible in coastal and interior TN. 

A pre-mature Low in the Gulf of Munnar region may get a lease of life.

On Friday, N-1 moves into Pakistan and will be resisted by an anti-cyclone over Central India. Next 2 days, Northern regions of Pakistan, Northern Indian States of Kashmir and HP gets snow in higher and middle ranges of Utteranchal get rains.
Cloudy weather for Punjab and Northern Haryana with light rains in Northern plain regions.

18 comments:

Abhijit said...

Today max temp reduced here in Badlapur and also cool breeze blowing from North . So max temp was 31.5 C at 3pm here .

Junaid said...

@abhijit Even at panvel the max temp dipped ,,but since yesterday i could sense a substantial amount of drop in humidity in the air.low humidity makes the air feel cooler.

Shitij said...

@Rajesh sir I have never seen snowfall in my whole life so in order to see snowfall I am going to Kashmir On 18th november.Whether I will be able to see snowfall in Kashmir?

rajesh said...

shitij: N-1 will be precipitating over Kashmir on Saturday/Sunday. Now, snow will be there in the higher and medium hills...which places are you visiting ? Gulmarg can get, Sonmarg can get...where are you placed on weekend ?

sset said...

With all uncertainties over NEM, dry and hot NOV for TN, Rayalseema... can this be one of the worst 2012 NEM? Only during 2 periods, it has rained over TN. Fact that weak SWM bears strong/okay NEM no longer holds good.

Abhijit said...

Wow. Enjoying chill weather today. 20 C at 10.30pm here in Badlapur.

GSB said...

Abhijti, you are indeed lucky ! No such scene here in Thane. Envirocon showing 26 c right now. Here at GB road also no chillyness or pleasant winter feeling inside the house. Maybe outside would be a little more pleasant..

Abhijit said...

@ GSB. But as per IMD AWS Thane was already 24 C @ 8.30pm only !!

You can check this link :-

http://www.imdaws.com/ViewAwsData.aspx

GSB said...

Abhijit, yes I saw that but I do not know how accurate they are or where they are located. It sure does not feel like 22-23 c right now or even 24 c . I am almost sweating as I type this on my computer.

One thing I might like to add is that due the boom in residential construction activity (25-30 storeyed buildings all around me) temperatures in my area have seemingly gone up in the last few years. I remember when I first came here to GB road in 1997 the nights from November onwards used to be pretty chilly. We often had to close the windows due to this. But these days we almost never close the windows even in December.. Let's see how the next two months shape up..

Abhijit said...

@ GSB. Okk. Yes due to construction & tall buidings might be not so cool there. Here now very chill.. No need of fan at all. And sliding windows just one shutter kept open as chilly here. And just wear the t shirt also.

sam khan said...

weather has turned chilly here at vasai .

Abhijit said...

As was telling last night that Badlapur is getting chilly. So today morning Badlapur records 14.5 C as min temp at 6am. So first cooler day of the season which slide down below 15 C also. Karjat more cooler. As Karjat AWS showing 13.4 C at 6.30am today. Previously Oct last week recorded 16 C here.

rajesh said...

Colaba Minimum on Saturday will be given as 23.4c..that may not be correct as the settings were disturbed..actual would be 21c...observatory sources informed me settings were disturbed..posted 10.15am Saturday

Abhijit said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Yes,Surely setting are disturbed !! As IMD Pune & IMD Chennai websites updated at 9.30am today & showing Colaba min temp as 27.2 C !!

rajesh said...

abhijit: Request. Please put up all the minimums today of towns around Mumbai..colaba will be putting up 23.4c, but ignore that..from ur list.actual was 21c, but they cannot officialise it...as the settings were disturbed (they told me)

Abhijit said...

Today's Min temp of some cities of Maharashtra

Mumbai:

Santacruz 19 C
Colaba 21 C
Dahanu 18 C
Pune 9.5 C
Nashik 8.9 C
Nagpur 10.2 C
Aurangabad 11.2 C
Mahabaleshwar 13.1 C
Ratnagiri 17.2 C
Satara 10.1 C
Sangli 13 C
Solapur 11.1 C
Parbhani 9.5 C
Akola 12 C

Now some min temp from IMD AWS

Palghar 15.5 C
Thane 19.3 C
Karjat 13.4 C
Badlapur(own measured ) 14.5 C

Abhijit said...

One correction Aurangabad is 11.6 C.

Abhijit said...

Today Badlapur's max temp is 31 C at 3pm. 0.5 C less from yesterday's max temp.