Friday, November 09, 2012


Vagaries' events sequence till 18th November, estimated on 9th November, Night:

1. A low ( BB-11) can form in the Bay, East NE off Sri Lanka, around the 10N line, by the 14th/15th of November. Initial pressure 1006 mb

2. Tracking West/North-Westwards, centre  will Strike Northern Sri Lanka by the 15th, and move into Tamil Nadu between Ramanathpuram and Nagapattinum by the 17th of November. Indian coast hit pressure 1004 mb, as a depression.

3. Moves inland, with good rainfall in interior TN, specially S.I. and Nilgiri Mountains and S.I.Karnataka on 17th/18th. 

4. Moves into Arabian Sea as an UAC around 18th November. We've moved too much into the future, will halt now...and monitor the scenario..

5. Another Low  (BB-12) forms near the Andaman Islands by the 18th of November...

6. Weak WD on schedule for extreme Northern region around 12th November.

We shall track the events developments daily (specially after 13th), and intimate the changes , if any....
(These are my personal views, and for commercial use ,please refer your local met Dept).

Forecast till Sunday as put up in chart on Wednesday...

Contest Date closing on 15th November for the Month..please fill in/ correct  your entries...

10 comments:

Abhijit said...

Today sky turned partly cloudy towards afternoon here in Badlapur. Also in Pune it was more cloudy in afternoon time.

So looking like that next 2days chillness may remain to lower side as cloudy weather developing !

And I think may be some scattered areas of S.Madhya Maha including Pune may get some light rain in next 48 hrs.

rajesh said...

Arpit/RK: If you check the MSLP chart ,we see a trough at that level running from the WD. The trough ,weak like the WD, runs roughly from Haryana thru Delhi and upto West UP. It is formed as an off shoot from the WD...WD was mentioned in the forecast on Wednesday...no rain was recoreded in any parts of NCR...clouds were 3 OKTA at 3000 feet and now 4 OKTA at 9000 feet...tomorrow, the trough fades away,with the WD...as another WD, also weak approaches from Monday...these WD are weak, hence not numbered...tomorrow, initial clouds will vanish and flatten by evening..night min rises to 17c tomorrow..

Pavan said...

Pune getting muggy and humid with cumulous towering clouds seen upto 3pm but latee they turn to flattering type which rajesh sir explained in last saturday fb pic of mine, but humidity decreases towards eve with pinkish orange sky if it continues it dont think it will precipitate thr were huge chances on monday but it didnt

rajesh said...

Pavan: today (Saturday) clouds in Pune did not tower too much, just some initial thermal current due to heat pushing it a bit high. But, when you see the clouds going flat, that means stable atmosphere...these really do not bring rain...in fact these clouds become flat altos by evening...high pressure on sea level chart portends stable atmosphere..

Abhijit said...

As was discuss last night that chillness may reduced in some parts of Maharashtra.. So today min temp raised noted at many places so some cities min temp of today morning

Mumbai SCZ 20.2 C
Pune 17.2 C
Nashik 16 C
Aurangabad 17.6 C
Badlapur 19.5 C( temp just for rough reference )

Today morning Badlapur was having medium fog & now sky has started to turn party cloudy at moment here

sam khan said...

Looks like these 2 systems in the bay is not going to be any beneficial for chennai. weather is likely to clear in chennai will be mostly sunny and dry.

rajesh said...

Sunday Lowest in Northern Plains: Amritsar 8.4c, Mountains: Leh -7c, Shyok -15c.
Coldest in Maharashtra: Nagpur: 13.1c
Hottest today Surat 36.4c.

rajesh said...

sam: may dis- agree on that...:)

rajesh said...

Arpit: WD , as a system is weak now in the west. I feel a weak WD, will approach by 14th/15th, with rains in the extreme north..

rajesh said...

Neeraj: Read your report/feedback on Kathmandu by mail.
yes Neeraj: checked the weather. Rain at AP not much, just 0.5 mms between 3.30 and 5.00 pm...temp dropped from 20.5c at 2 pm to 12.8 c at 5 pm....