Monday, November 12, 2012


Early November Smog over Delhi..the How and Why ....See Current Weather Page 




An UAC has formed off the Kerala coast, almost at sea level. Some charts even depict it as a low at sea level. Another UAC has formed at 5N and 90E. 
The 2 UACs joining "line" to form a trough aloft. 

The Arabian Sea UAC will not sustain beyond 24 hrs, hence the on going medium rains in Kerala and coastal Karnataka decrease after Tuesday.
But the Bay system will move NW, initially as a UAC for the next 48 hrs. It will descend as a Low, (BB-11)by the 14th of November, around the 8N and 85E region, East of sri Lanka. The system, BB-11 will move NW towards the TN coast as a depression. 

Rainfall increasing progressively along TN coast from 15th, and in Chennai from 15th/16th. Centre of the system will be off the TN coast on 16th...

As mentioned on 7th, another Low forms around the Andaman region, about 93E. 
The 2 system can form a strong trough. (Usually called a trough "in sympathy").
The tracking of BB-11 and BB-12 will depend on the tilt of the trough. 
Vagaries reads the situation as BB-11 moving into TN as a depression..

The coming WD, currently as a low South of the Caspian Sea region will move into the UAE (Dubai) region on Wednesday 14th. 
Dubai can expect precipitation on Wednesday. 
The Low moves into the Iran/Balochistan/Afghanistan region on Thursday, 15th. Here we might see 2 options:

a) A strong trough line is seen developing NE from the system into Afghanistan. This may literally pull the WD into the Afghan and adjoining extreme North Pakistan areas.

b) The trough mentioned remains weak and not effective. In that case, the WD will be allowed to move E/NE, and move into Northern Pakistan and Northern Indian regions. Precipitation can happen in Kashmir, HP and plains of North Punjab (both sides).

23 comments:

GSB said...


TO all VAGARIES readers and especially Rajesh sir..

*******************************
HAPPY DIWALI AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR
*******************************

Gurvinder

Puneet Bangera said...

HAPPY DIWALI TO RAJESH SIR & ALL VAGARIES READERS.
:-)

Shitij said...

Happy Diwali to Rajesh sir and all vagaries readers

Arpit Sharma said...

Happy Diwali to all and plz fill in your entries for the contest page...

sam khan said...

Happy Diwali ,rajesh sir and to all regular readers.

N.KiranKumar Reddy said...

Happy Diwali to all the VAGARIES readers

Abhijit said...

Happy Diwali to Rajesh sir and all vagaries readers.

sam khan said...

very humid morning, almost 74percent humidity , with temperature hovering around 26.8, Rajesh sir what could be the reason.

sam khan said...

the above coment was regarding vasai.

Abhijit said...

Badlapur min temp also increased today. It was 21 C @ 6.30am today.

And also as usual its foggy here. Badlapur enjoys fog almost on daily basis. One thing is also observed when min temp is below 18 C then less foggy !!

RK Chaudhary said...

Wishing a happy and prosperous Diwali to all...

Junaid said...

happy diwali to all the members of vagaries family!!

Shitij said...

200 hpa jet is from S-SE direction upto 15 degree north latitute but after that it is from SW direction so I think that 98B will move in N-NW direction till 15 degree and after that it will move in the NE direction and will hit the myanmar/Bangladesh coast as depression. What's your views on this Rajesh sir??

rajesh said...

Thanks everyone and again, A Happy New Year to All.

Vagaries' entry for the contest will be up tomorrow, 14th.

sam khan said...

AS i told earlier there will be no rains or any influence of this depression on TN chennai as it is likely to move away towards thailand or bangladesh, weather will be mostly clear in chennai.

Abhijit said...

Sir. Means Tomorrow an last day for alteration. Then tomorrow doing some alteration in mine estimates.

sset said...

Wish all readers happy festival.

1. November has been unusually dry for TN. 98B seems to move away from TN. Not sure I feel SE interior India is still driest place (in India).

2. Myself in beautiful Navi Mumbai now away from garbage of Bangalore(made me sick for 2 weeks). Yesterday we visited Alibagh - Murad - Janjira fort. This is just HEAVEN ON EARTH. Beautiful konkan - dense forest hills(coconuts,betel palms,mangos (prized alphonso),cashews,jackfruits,kokums on hills, with lakhs of banyan trees on one side and endless sea on other side-unspoilt clean beaches. magnificent JANJIRA fort.. Much of Maharashtra/Mumbai is beautiful - elephanta caves,malsej ghat,vagreshwari(hot springs..)dams/lakes,hill stations .. list is endless. Maharashtra goverment preserves environment unlike Karnataka govt (sad to say this)....

Shitij said...

TD 25 has formed over western Pacific Ocean near to Bay of Bengal.This tropical depression 25 and strong wind shear over the Bay of Bengal(around 30 knots) will not allow the 98B to intensify beyond low pressure.

Abhijit said...

Today's Mumbai Min temp & Chennai's Min temp comparison

Santacruz 22.9 C
Colaba 24.5 C

Meenambakkam 20.5 C
Nungambakkam 21.2 C

So Chennai was cooler than Mumbai today !!

And next three days Chennai's min temp may fall further around 19 C !!

Abhijit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Abhijit said...

@ Rajesh Sir. As per current satellite image some band of clouds are seen entering North Konkan coast. They are spread right from Oman coast till North Maharashtra coast.. So whether they are part of WD system??

Shitij said...

@ Rajesh sir During winter season Pakistan,Afghanistan,Jammu and Kashmir are under intense high pressure so how this western disturbance is able to survive under such high pressure??

rajesh said...

shitij: good question. The pressure is high, between 1014 and 1020 in those regions in winter months. But,what is a WD ? It is actually a "cold front" moving in. A cold front is a mass of relatively cold air , pushing beneath a relatively warm air mass, and making the warm air rise. Now when this air mass rises, 2 things happen
1. The pressure in that region falls. Falls from the current 1015 (avg) to 1010. Then 1010 becomes a low in that region. and
2. the rising air condenses to form clouds.
The incoming air in the region is hence cold at the surface..
check the current MSLP here;see the Low as a WD
http://www.pmdnmcc.net/WxCharts/SaChart-12-3.JPG