Monday, November 19, 2012

Monday 9 pm:

BB-11 fades away as a low at 1005 mb..fizzles out at 15.2N and 86E..same position for last 12 hrs....seems "realistic" does it not ?
updating blog tonite on this ....

Monday 12 Noon post :

BB-12 has not moved much and its elongated centre is at 15.1N and 86.1E..no movement in last 3 hrs. 
The central peninsula regions are enjoying a cold wave and a dip in night temperatures. But, this has almost "smothered" the system. Dry air wrapping round the system has caused the convection to die down and now the clouding around the system has lost all convectivity and is at an average temperature of +10c and outer spiral clouds at +16c. 

A WD can be seen in the far west, and moving Eastwards. Should arrive over Dubai by tomorrow. Northern Pakistan will see its effect from Tuesday evening and over India the next day.
Northern Pakistan regions will get rains and snow over the hills from Tuesday night...cold conditions in the day...



Monday Morning (10 am IST) sees BB-11 as a depression (T-1.0) and pressure at 1003 mb. Winds are just about 20-25 knts, and the clouding has thinned out and are non convective, at an average temperature (CTT ) of 10c. No precipitation around the system ...though a weak centre still holds on at 15.2N and 86.2E ...New Low emerged in the Eastern Bay at 1008 mb. Shall number it if required...maybe a final report around noon ?

see Abhijit's comments giving Monday morning lows in Maharashtra..check Arpit's list.

8 comments:

Arpit Sharma said...

Sir,the coming WD has gained some strength with cloud top temperature reaching upto -50c and has reached upto persian gulf.Will it gain strength over the persian gulf due to moisture of the sea?Does cloud top temperature has an relation with the intensity of the system?

sset said...

Sad ending for BB-11. TN did not receive any rain - drought will worsen. Basically cold temperatures of peninsular India - dissolved convection????

Rohit 10 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Rohit 10 said...

@Arpit : Lower cloud top temp means higher convectivity ....

Hence lower cloud top temp , means more intense system..

@Rajesh sir : Please correct me if m wrong / add to the above..

rajesh said...

yes arpit, high cloud top and low temperatures show some convectivity..but real low temperatures in the caspian sea region is also a natural phenomena to some extent..

rajesh said...

Rohit: you are correct about 1962. My ref. of low day was with a rough ref to WD , and main note was WD coming with multiple lows below...yes,i had just expressed by memory on live chat with arpit about 1970. rohit, i am not too sure otf this 20c max in Mumbai on 5th jan '62 . where is this info from please ?

Abhijit said...

Today more chill here in Badlapur as 17 C at 10.30pm .

Rohit 10 said...

@ Rajesh sir : i got the info from tutiempo website ..

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Bombay_Santacruz/430030.htm