An UAC has formed off the Kerala coast, almost at sea level. Some charts even depict it as a low at sea level. Another UAC has formed at 5N and 90E.
The 2 UACs joining "line" to form a trough aloft.
The Arabian Sea UAC will not sustain beyond 24 hrs, hence the on going medium rains in Kerala and coastal Karnataka decrease after Tuesday.
But the Bay system will move NW, initially as a UAC for the next 48 hrs. It will descend as a Low, (BB-11)by the 14th of November, around the 8N and 85E region, East of sri Lanka. The system, BB-11 will move NW towards the TN coast as a depression.
Rainfall increasing progressively along TN coast from 15th, and in Chennai from 15th/16th. Centre of the system will be off the TN coast on 16th...
As mentioned on 7th, another Low forms around the Andaman region, about 93E.
The 2 system can form a strong trough. (Usually called a trough "in sympathy").
The tracking of BB-11 and BB-12 will depend on the tilt of the trough.
Vagaries reads the situation as BB-11 moving into TN as a depression..
The coming WD, currently as a low South of the Caspian Sea region will move into the UAE (Dubai) region on Wednesday 14th.
Dubai can expect precipitation on Wednesday.
The Low moves into the Iran/Balochistan/Afghanistan region on Thursday, 15th. Here we might see 2 options:
a) A strong trough line is seen developing NE from the system into Afghanistan. This may literally pull the WD into the Afghan and adjoining extreme North Pakistan areas.
b) The trough mentioned remains weak and not effective. In that case, the WD will be allowed to move E/NE, and move into Northern Pakistan and Northern Indian regions. Precipitation can happen in Kashmir, HP and plains of North Punjab (both sides).