Thursday, September 01, 2011

AS-2, at 998 mb, has deepened to some extent. As on Wednesday evening, it was located in the Arabian Sea, just south of the international border.
It can deepen a bit more to 996 mb by Thursday. As the seasonal low ,also at 998 mb, lies north of AS-2, we can expect a combined effect in the imaginary line joining the 2 lows. We can estimate good precipitation in Sindh on Thursday. Expect the system to fizzle out after Friday.

Karachi received 10 mms of rain in the day on Wednesday. Thus having got 60 mms in this month, the city received its normal quota for the month.
On Thursday, Karachi can expect another overcast day, with spells of thundershowers. A few in the post noon will be heavy. Rains could decrease from Friday.

With the monsoon axis far to the south, northern india (Delhi) will be rain free for the next few days also. Delhi, already heating up to 37c, might just reach 38c b Thursday.
Nepal too would be practically devoid of meaningfull rains. Kathmandu was short of its monthly August normal by 53 mms when it reached a total of 266 mms by the month end.

BB-5 is now, at 998 mb, is over south Chattisgarh. Not expecting much future from BB-5. Rainfall will be heavy in a "localised " region. We can expect some heavy showers in East M.P. and Vid on Thursday. Some precipitation could be expected along the axis joining the 2 lows. Precipitation can be expected in southern M.P. Southern Rajasthan and Gujarat region.

As mentioned yesterday, AS-2 can possibly just "tone up" the rainfall a bit in North Konkan.

Closing current poll tomorrow. Very few votes cast this time for SWM withdrawal time. Cast your vote now if not done so !

Mumbai saw very little rain on Wednesday. Just about 1 mm.

Thursday could be partly cloudy, with sunny spells. Post noon cloud cover will increase to some extent, when a few showers may be possible.Thunder cells over the ghats on the eastern skyline by evening. Rain amount 15 mms.

Mumbai Colaba managed 798 mms in August, while the S'Cruz gauge measured 855 mms in August. Averaging 825 mms for the month.

On 1st August, Vagaries had estimated :“Looking at the above scenario, for Mumbai, I would expect rainfall to get a bit substantial in the 2nd fortnight of August. I could go wrong, but on the above 50-50 basis for the 2 halves of the month, I would estimate around 575-600 mms average between the 2 stations.”

2 comments:

Tyrone said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
svt said...

Today mumbai got average of 20mm rain & it looks like we (scz) could get total of 80mm rains in next 48 hrs. Whats your forecast for month of september. I personally feel Mumbai (santacruz) could get 450mm of rains. We might get around 150mm in first week & then there may be lull till 20th sept. After 20th sept rains could increase. This is the first time I am trying to predict monthly weather so I could get this totally wrong. Whats ur thoughts?