Wednesday, September 28, 2011

South West Monsoon is retreating Southwards. Parameters like OLR and UTH observed from IMD images indicate the SWM to have vacated regions above 25N. And approaching fast towards Maharashtra.
For Maharashtra and Mumbai, the only positve factor favouring "last farewell" rains is the "Maximum Lifted Condensation Level". Still favourable at 1000-1500.

A thunderstorm lashed Pune in the evening on Wednesday. Rainfall recorded was 22 mms.Shivaji nagar (Pune) measured 33 mms till evening. Unconfirmed reports of thunder rain at Lonavala.

SWM should be withdrawing from below the 20N line by October 1st week.

Would expect NEM to set in around 15th October. One thing is for sure, next system coming from South Bay will be from the NEM "family".

10 comments:

junaid said...

:( :( so finally bye bye to my favourite season,,,,now its time for the dry heat of october ,,,,,in panvel the relative humidity can drop as low as 20% during midday nd coupled with high temperatures of 35-36,,and all the green valleys of the ghats and all will dry up!!!!

junaid said...

already it was very hot today at panvel i guess temp wud be around 33 c !!!!today also we missed the farewell ,,,,,pune was lucky !!!!:(

rajesh said...

junaid: Dont give up hope yet...SWM still not withdrawn from Mumbai region...like you mentioned, and as mentioned in vagaries yesterday, Pune/Lonavala had thunderstorm today.

Pavan said...

Nt d entire pune, eastrn parts were completely dry

junaid said...

rajesh: you are right i shudnt give up hope may be a freak thunderstorm can supprise us!!...

sridhar said...

are we heading towards the long awaited thundershowers between this friday and sunday..??!!!.. chances look good...

rajesh said...

sridhar: I would say 60% chances of 0ne 0r even two TS by Sunday for Mumbai region.

Shitij said...

Surat received 1019 mm of rainfall against 1400 mm of normal rainfall.This time really we had bad monsoon

rajesh said...

shitij:IMD observatory recorded 1218 mms of rain for Surat. Which according to IMD computations is 84 mms above normal.

Shitij said...

But in Times of India it was written that Surat city received 1019 mm of rainfall.