Wednesday, September 28, 2011
South West Monsoon is retreating Southwards. Parameters like OLR and UTH observed from IMD images indicate the SWM to have vacated regions above 25N. And approaching fast towards Maharashtra.
For Maharashtra and Mumbai, the only positve factor favouring "last farewell" rains is the "Maximum Lifted Condensation Level". Still favourable at 1000-1500.
A thunderstorm lashed Pune in the evening on Wednesday. Rainfall recorded was 22 mms.Shivaji nagar (Pune) measured 33 mms till evening. Unconfirmed reports of thunder rain at Lonavala.
SWM should be withdrawing from below the 20N line by October 1st week.
Would expect NEM to set in around 15th October. One thing is for sure, next system coming from South Bay will be from the NEM "family".
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