Thursday, September 29, 2011

Maharashtra Bulletin:

In a surprise development, a UAC has formed over east central Arabian Sea & adjoining Maharashtra coast and now extends between 1.5 & 3.6 kms a.s.l.
But, seeing the sea level conditions, it is not expected to descend or strengthen further.

Thundershowers popped up on Thursday in the Western Maharashtra region. Pune again had a thunderstorm with 37 mms, and nearby Pashan measured 51 mms. Suburban Chinchwad however had only 3 mms. The weather in the region cooled down with the rains. Pashan thermometer read 21.6c at 7 pm today, and Pune was 22c at 7 pm.

Down South, Satara had rain with thunder, to the order of 2 mms. Mahableshwar had rains with thunder at 8.30 pm Thursday, recording 10 mms.
Ahmednagar too received light showers in the night amounting to 3 mms.

Doppler shows heavy clouding to the East of Mumbai at 9.30 pm Thursday.


emkay said...

Rajesh, so is this tthe strong Arabian sea circulation GFs predicted

NT said...

Looks like the stage is now set for the farewell Thunderstorms over and around the Mumbai area. The latest (00z) GFS runs point to around 30 - 45 mm rains over both the days (Saturday and Sunday of this weekend). Also, the Lifted Index for Saturday and Sunday is at -2, though the CAPE values are not shown as high. Looks like Saturday could see a heavy thundershower (purely basing my analysis on the 00z GFS runs of today morning and nothing else)

rajesh said...

NT:Cola forecasts now reconciles with our insistence of Mumbai getting TS.

NT said...

That's correct Rajeshbhai, the COLA forecasts after being in the 'denail' mode have finally reconciled to your forecasts.

One thing that surprises me is that the Clouding on Satelitte looks 'Low' level clouds and not the bright White clouds you would associate with T'Storms. Also, the lightning map has not seemed to catch any Lightning activity over the Western Maharashtra area yesterday.

junaid said...

the farewell is finally panvel!!! But is it the farewell or the monsoon is going to prolong more???? Becoz the weather today was very confusing !!!! Panvel got decent rains in between there wer sum heavy showers also!!!between 5-6:30 pm during the day also ther wer sum heavy drizzles between 2-3 pm..but this rain was totally devoid of any thunder and no thundercels were fact the clouds were quite spread out and greyish ,,,, as the day progressed i noticed varying cloud movements ,,,the very low level clouds were coming from west and spread out clouds from south -east ...this shower dint even loosely resembles a farewll shower @rajesh can u explain this behavior??

sridhar said...

i think the monsoon retreat could drag till the next weekend....?

rajesh said...

sridhar: I dont think so..anyway putting up my views tonite

Posted Wednesday Afternoon:Position of "GAJA" 1130 am : 12.8/84.8  Winds: 75-85 gusting to 95  Status:Cyclonic Storm