Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Catching up with the blog put up last, on Thursday 8th, today we see BB-6 stationed over south Rajasthan. Vagaries had mentioned on Thursday that we expect the system to persist in the extreme west position shown in Vagaries' map for a few days after Monday.

On the weekend, BB-6 has moved along the route anticipated by Vagaries, with heavy rainfalls recorded from South Gujarat (Palanpur 16 cms, Vadgam 14 cms and Vapi 11 cms), South Rajasthan (Udaipur AWS 14 cms and Abu 10 cms and Pratpgarh 8 cms) and North Konkan.
Along the North Konkan coast, Vasai, recorded 99 mms of rain on Sunday till Monday morning. Hill station Lonaval recorded 6 cms, Mahableshwar 4 cms.

Bharuch received 54 mms on Sunday, and the season's total in Bharuch at 1095 mms has crossed the annual normal of 1001 mms..

Delhi and surroundings also had rains this weekend .Though vagaries had mentioned light rains, it was not very light for a couple of stations, with New Delhi getting 61 mms on Friday and Agra getting 42 mms and Bharatpeur 35 mms on Saturday.

Kathmandu received 15 mms of rain on Monday.

However, the only "out of tune " part, going against our forecast, was in Western Gujarat and across the border. The continuing rainfall in West Saurashtra, Kutch and Southern Sindh region has surprised us. The seasonal low, though now having weakened to 1000 mb, and spread over a larger area, still manages to attract considerable moisture and to bring heavy rains in some cities of these regions. In fact, today (Monday), even the sea level wind factor goes against the formation of cloudings of such a thick density. And seasonal lows are not "supposed " to attract moisture !But its there !

Kayanpur and Dwarka (Jamnagar district ) saw 130 mms and 111 mms resp on Sunday.
Heaviest in Sindh has been in Mithi, which measured 225 mms, 137 mms, 100 mms , 68 mms respectively on each day from Wednesday, 7th September.
Flooding in Sindh has been reported.
Tyrone from Karachi has reported of a thunderstorm on Saturday and a heavier one, flooding parts of Karachi on Sunday evening. Karachi Airport has recorded rainfall of 24 mms on Saturday. Different regions of the city the highest on received between 8 mms to 38 mms on Saturday and i read of a report of 85 mms in Karachi (maybe in a certain area) on Sunday.

I see this (Kutch/Sindh) rainfall diminishing in area by Tuesday (13th), and disappearing by Wednesday. In fact, I feel the UAC over South Rajasthan will fade out by Thursday,and form an anti-cyclone over the region by Saturday. Translating, an anticyclone at 850 mb, means the SWM has withdrawn. Forecast maps of jet streams at 200 mb show changing direction from saturday.
Vagaries expects the SWM to retreat from Central Sindh and extreme west Rajasthan by Saturday 16th, give or take a day .

Decreasing rains with brighter weather in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, before parting thundershowers start.

Mumbai recieved the heavy showers forecasted for Sunday. Colaba received 40 mms and S'Cruz 35 mms on Sunday (average 37 mms). Vagaries' estimate for Sunday was 30-35 mms.

Monsoonish atmosphere decreasing gradually.

Tuesday/Wednesday: Intervals of sun and clouds. 3/4 passing showers. Rain amount 15 mms.Day will be warmer than Monday with a high of 30/31c (28/29 on Monday).

Thursday/Friday: Partly cloudy with a few passing showers. A heavy shower towards evening possible. Rain amount 15-20 mms.

Note on ENSO on Wednesday.

2 comments:

junaid said...

@rajesh,,,the imd in its evening bulletin says that monsoon willl revive over central due to the passage of low pressure area ,,,,what effect it willl have on mumbai and konkan ???also plz tell about the status of the low pressure area over southeast Pakistan and adjoining southwest Rajasthan,,remmber u once said that in the thai maps ,,there was no sign of itt,,,but this low pressure area has thrown som esuprises ,,and one can see huge clouding even in coastal iran and baluchistan areas...!!!!!

Anonymous said...

fascinating.

will ofcourse have to read it again to understand a bit more.

will come up with a few questions maybe.

SATYEN