Monday, September 19, 2011
During the course of this week, the SWM will be in a withdrawal mode in the NW, and humiditiy and pressure levels start to drop in the region. Jet streams at 200 mb will take a descive turn towards the west direction. The low pressure area mentioned yesterday in Vagaries, has taken shape over Bangladesh. As estimated, it will last for a day. (Its just about managing at 1002 mb).
During such a course of action, the weather in the rest of the northern/Central peninsula region is generally un-stable. Direct heating of the land mass, surfeited with moisture, gives rise to several massive thundercells. They will be pop marked all over the M.P, East Gujarat, Maharashtra and adjoining Karnataka and A.P.
In a satellite image, we may see these thundercells going upto more than 15 kms in height, and forming anvils.
Direct interpretation of the 3 comments pertaining to Mumbai:
In my personal opinion, I do not see any stability in Mumbai this week (Tuesday thru Sat), hence lifted index cannot fall into the negative this week. And CAPE will be strong too. This is my personal calculation and estimate, and do not doubt other forecasts or reader's views.
On 3 or 4 days from Tuesday thru Saturday, there is a
Possibility of advent of thick strato-cumulus clouds (restricted to morning hours) forming over parts of the city. This may lead to some brief morning showers in restricted areas.Day will be hot at around 32c.
Later, thunderclouds may form and drift over parts of the city by evening, briinging showers.
Colaba has managed 284 mms and S'Cruz has received 239 mms during September till 19th. Average 261 mms. Vagaries had estimated an average of 300-350 mms for September.
Falling in place ? What's your take ? (Please check Mumbai Page article dated 1st September. Long term September forecast).
Posted Friday 25th afternoon: Parameters wise South West Monsoon has started its Withdrawal phase from North West India and Punjab. Rain...