Monday, May 24, 2021

Posted 24th May...1 pm

BB-3, expressed as a Depression till yesterday, now satellite images showing tightening of the pressure around the centre.. Thus rapidly formed into a Cyclone "Yaas" with estimated core pressure at 990 mb and core winds estimated at 65-75 kmph.

Tracking towards the Odisha/West Bengal border Cat 2/3

Monday thru Thursday cumulative rainfall expected in 

Balasore 300-350mms, Bhubaneshwar 275-325 mms....can vary depending on the intensifying of the Cyclone.

Kolkata can expect 80-100 mms in the time frame.

Mumbai: No cyclone threat to Mumbai. Partly cloudy weather for 24th -27th  with light drizzles in some parts of city ..very scattered.

Pune: Partly cloudy with chances of thundery development in some parts of Pune on Monday/Tuesday.


Darshit said...

No proper formation yet.. Clouds are more towards west.

Rajesh said...

Darshit... I have mentioned in previous posts that rainfall will concentrate in West and SW due to shear in the East.

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian Government Bureau of metereology latest issued 25 05 2021

Issued 25 May 2021

The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

Large scale climate drivers neutral

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Climate model outlooks show this neutral ENSO state is likely to continue for at least the coming six months.

Oceanic indicators of ENSO are clearly within the neutral range, with sea surface temperatures across almost all the equatorial Pacific Ocean close to the long-term average. Similarly, temperatures beneath the surface show no significant shift away from normal. Atmospheric indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloud patterns, are well within the ENSO-neutral range. Trade winds are generally ENSO neutral, although currently stronger than usual in the far western Pacific due to an approaching pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation.

A moderate to strong pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the Maritime Continent region. It is forecast to move eastwards towards the western Pacific and weaken. At this time of the year, the MJO influence is shifting to the northern hemisphere, and therefore has less influence on northern Australia. When the MJO is active over the eastern Maritime Continent and western Pacific region, increased cloudiness and rainfall is likely over parts of South-East Asia, the western North Pacific, Papua New Guinea and the northern Solomon Islands.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index has recently become negative after being at positive levels for a fortnight. It is expected to remain negative for the coming week before increasing to neutral values over the following week. Negative SAM typically acts to increase rainfall over southwest and southeast Australia and reduce rainfall over parts of eastern Australia. Neutral SAM has little influence on Australian climate.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, although the index has dropped in the past week. Large parts of the eastern Indian Ocean are warmer than average, with some cooler than average water near the Horn of Africa. Climate model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral during winter, although two of the five models suggest negative IOD conditions could develop in the next three months. However, it should be noted that accuracy of IOD forecasts made during autumn have lower accuracy than at other times of the year, with accuracy improving in winter. A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winter-spring rainfall for southern Australia.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C over 1910–2019, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.
More information

Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057

Next update expected on 8 June 2021

19th May .. South West Monsoon season has commenced for India..👇 Monsoon moves into South Andaman Islands... Kerala Expected to get heavy P...