Thursday, May 13, 2021

 Posted 13th May 1.30 pm

Repeating, A Well Marked Low will form off Kerala coast  in next 24 hrs.

The effective  Monsoon type rainfall has already  commenced in Kerala as massive  convection is seen. Pradeep has put  up the rainfall figures below.

Very heavy rains expeceted  in Kerala  and South Karnataka  Coast on 14th.

The system  will intensify to Depression in next 24hrs ( 15th) and soon  to Cyclone  " TAUKTAE" by 17th or 18th.

From tomorrow,  System  AS1 Will move along the coastal belt and then from 17th , track North/North West after reaching Goa. Going away from coast after 17th.

Will ,as per  conditions seen now, head towards the Kutch International  Border. As shown in map yesterday. 

Rainfall in  the Western  Saurashtra  Region when the cyclonic approaches the region..17th & 18th.

Mumbai,though no direct hit, will be very windy with gusty winds and rain showers on Sunday 16th and Monday 17th.

Pune, light to moderate rainfall on Saturday 15th and Sunday  16th. Strong gusty winds .

Very heavy rains in Goa on 15th and very  windy with cyclonic winds.

Monitoring AS 1 is on.. and major deflection or any variation will be updated.


2 comments:

sset said...

will this cyclone hit MAHA GUJ or PAK ?
GUJ 2020 Dwaraka received > 1500 mm rains in 3 days !

Devesh said...

In contrast to the forecast made by IMD that the country would witness above normal temperatures, the summer season so far has been cool. Talking about North India, there is hardly any heatwave witnessed so far this year. Western disturbances have been hitting North India leading to frequent showers in the hilly states and the plains. I am from Punjab and my area has received light to moderate showers almost daily for the last ten days. It feels like monsoon season. Today the maximum temperatures were almost eight to ten degrees below normal all across Punjab. Going by the forecast, there may be more western disturbances hitting northwest India.