Posted 12th May ..11.30 am:
Region of convection over Central Arabian Sea is developing and shifting Eastwards. Vortex currently shows vertical wind shear in the region, but low VWS in the South- East of the region.
Hence , a Well Marked Low will form off the Kerala Coast around the 14th. Due to warm seas at 30/31c, high TCHP and MJO, intensification will be to Depression stage within 24/36hrs of forming.
Cyclone "Tauktae" to form in favourable environment by 16th/17th, off North Karnataka/Goa coast.
Cyclone will then track North/North-West towards the Coastal Sindh region.
Very Heavy rains and gusty winds in Kerala on 14th/15th. Coastal Karnataka on 16th/17th with gusty winds.
Goa: Very Heavy rains , maybe 100 mms with very gusty winds, 50-60 kmph on 16th/17th.
South Konkan, where the Cyclone will graze by, may not have direct hit, but heavy rains and windy conditions (winds around 35-45 kmph) from 15-17th and less on 18th.
North Konkan, Mumbai, will most likely not get a direct hit, but cyclonic condition winds at 30-40 kmph. on 16th/17th.That is gusty winds with moderate rainfall on 16th, 17th.
Pune: Light to moderate rains on 15th/16th. But strong gusty winds .
As the storm is likely to turn track, Surat and Bharuch will get moderate showers on 16th/17th with wind gusts.
This is the latest scenario (12th ), may change according to changes in parameters.