Posted 10th May Afternoon:

System likely to form in South East Arabian Sea around 5N and 72E (Approximate location West of Sri Lanka) around 15th/16th May....Initially a Well Marked Low.

As per current scenario, without going in details, System, in next 3/5 days will strengthen substantially, even upto Cyclone stage, and move West/North-West towards  Southern Oman.

Sub Tropical Ridge may prevent Northwards track.

Rossby wave developing out of MJO.

If the Cyclone moves away from India coast by 20th, enough time will be there for South West Monsoon to re-organise for timely arrival.