MJO this monsoon stuck in phase 1 & 2. As per research mjo should move to phase 3-4 for an insitu genesis of low of bay of Bengal. As MJO in phase 3 & 4 enhances the vorticity & the convection in the bay of Bengal. MJO in phase 3&4 further enhances the upper level divergence which favours the formation of low pressure in Bay.
Also the west Pacific has not seen any tropical storm after 13 June. West Pacific has been inactive from last 1 month due to large scale subsidence over the region. So, due to absence of any tropical storm in the west Pacific no remnants are coming in the bay of bengal from Pacific side.
With inactive mjo & no pulse from Pacific side, bay of Bengal is not able to produce any low pressure system this month.
Further, MJO forecast indicates that will continue to be in phase 1,2 for another 10 days. Thus possibility of formation of a low in Bay of Bengal this month looks bleak.
Research by Vagarian Vineet Kumar ( Reasercher at IITM)