We had mentioned in our last Monsoon Watch that the cross Equatorial winds, Somalia SST are yet to strengthen.
We had pinned hopes on the Arabian Sea development for the Monsoon to gather momentum.
But since the last 4/5 days, we see stagnancy in the scenario, in both the Bay and Arabian Sea segments.
The ray of hope is for an area of development seen near the Maldives in the Arabian Sea.
This development is keeping the momentum alive. This is directly linked to the SST variations in the Arabian Sea.
Thus we see the South West Monsoon advance delayed by 3/4 days beyond 27th May (estimated date) for the Maldives. Subsequent delay (proportionately) for further regions will be monitored.
The Bay branch lags behind our schedule, and the Monsoon should cover the entire Andaman region by 29th May ,with some positive signs seen.
Heat wave conditions are likely next 4 days in Vidharbh and Telengana. Temperatures in Chandrapur and Nagpur likely at 46/47c.
North India is likely to see a rise in the heat in the next 3 days. New Delhi may record 45/46c during the week.
Days expected to get hot (above normal) in Odisha.
Mumbai: As mentioned, the first pre monsoon rains will be seen in the first week of June.
From Monday, Next 4 days will be humid, sweaty and hot, with the temp around 34c, and humidity high enough to make a real feel factor of 41c. (Real feel is what the body actually feels considering the temperature, winds and humidity).
Pune: (Next 4 days) Hot around 39/40c and dry. Strong winds in the day. Partly cloudy on 29th.