Thursday, May 09, 2019

Posted Thursday 9th Afternoon:

North India to get dust storms, Showers...
1. An approaching Western Disturbance ,M-1, will bring rains and hail to North West and Northern India. From 10th May- 15th May, all of North Western States, Due to the formation of an induced Low over Rajasthan, Northern States and Northern Region of Central Peninsula will get medium to moderate rainfall. Dust storms and heavy rains are also likely on 12th/13th .
As a result, there will be drop in the maximum and minimum temperatures of these regions. The current heat will subside in the North and North West from 11th .

Central and Interior Peninsula to get Thunder Showers
2. As a result of a formation of a Line of Wind Discontinuity, from Chattisgarh thru Vidharbh thru Interior Karnataka thru Kerala. There will be Thunder showers in Vidharbh, Int Karnataka , Marathwada, Telengana  and heavy thunder showers in Kerala from 12th -15th. 
Heat wave in Maharashtra and Telengana will subside.

Mumbai Next 5 days will be partly cloudy, humid with temperatures between 34c and 26c. Humidity will make the real feel factor to around 37c.

Pune will be partly cloudy with day temperatures at 38/39c. Towering cumulus clouds will appear on 13/14th.


Rajesh Kumar said...

As stated, interior TN and SIK getting TS

NilaY Wankawala said...


Issued 14 May 2019

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

ENSO Outlook decreases to El Niño WATCH; positive Indian Ocean Dipole possible

ENSO Outlook
Our ENSO Outlook provides
up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.

ENSO Outlook dial showing El Niño WATCH status
Current status: El Niño WATCH

Indicators have been close to El Niño thresholds over the past several months, but signs have emerged of a weakening of these patterns. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook has decreased to El Niño WATCH. This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2019 is approximately 50%, which is still double the normal likelihood.

While sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain close to El Niño levels, water beneath the surface has slowly cooled over the past few months. Atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness near the Date Line have generally remained in the neutral range, despite short-term El Niño-like SOI values in the last fortnight.

International models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to remain near El Niño thresholds until mid-winter, before cooling in late winter to spring. By August, two of the eight models are clearly at El Niño levels, with another two near El Niño thresholds.

El Niño typically brings drier than average conditions for eastern Australia during winter–spring, and warmer days across the southern two-thirds of the country.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. However, models show a tendency towards positive IOD values during the forecast period, with five of six models suggesting a positive IOD event is likely to develop in winter, and persist into mid-spring. A positive IOD typically means below average winter–spring rainfall for much of southern and central Australia.
More information

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Next update expected on 28 May 2019

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