Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Posted 29th May Night:

{Next 4 Days:
Mumbai:  Hot, Humid and sweaty ! Uncomfortable high humidity real feel of 41c. Light Pre Monsoon drizzles /rain from 3rd/4th June.
Pune: Hot at 39/40c, with gusty westerly winds in the day. }

"Too much of choice in any form leads to confusion".....And that is what is happening with amateur meteorologists today who are following the Monsoon development in various wind, pressure, upper winds and various charts. 

As per Vagaries' last report, the South West Monsoon showed a slight delay of about 4 days (over our previous estimate) in its advance beginning from The Maldives.

Now, the OLR image shows less than 200 W-2 in the 55E to 80E section box. 

31st May winds at 925 hpa in the off shore regions of Maldives and Sri Lanka (West ) increasing to >15-20 knts.

UTH shows suitable conditions for strengthening of Monsoon.

The Jet Streams have turned direction and become Easterlies in the Southern region below 10N...thus suitably placed by the " this Important " parameter...

SST off Somalia coast is reducing, and creating a temperature variation between the region and Mid Arabian Sea.

South West Monsoon favourably placed for advance into Maldives by 31st may.
Likely advance into Sri Lanka by 1st/2nd June.. and into Kerala by 5th June.
It has covered the Andaman Region.

(What is brewing off  Somalia Coast...Something happening ?)

New Delhi and NW India will be extremely hot in the next 4 days. The temperatures in the Capital Region may touch 46c. Pakistan , a few towns may reach 49c/50c.

Wednesday was a hot day for the Sub Continent...
The top 10 Hottest Places
1Mitribah (Kuwait)
2Jacobabad (Pakistan)
3Chandrapur (India)
4Bramhapuri (India)
5Churu (India)
6Banda (India)47.2°C
7Basrah-Hussen (Iraq)
8Jahra (Kuwait)
9Rohri (Pakistan)

10  Sibi (Pakistan)47.1°C


Kaustubh said...

Jet stream Easteries that's why pressure systems moves from East to west? Monsoon winds from west to East, so plz tell me the relation between monsoon winds, jet streams and bay of bengal pressure system

Kaustubh said...

What's the relation between Easteries and bay of bengal pressure system? Monsoon winds blow from west to East so monsoon strengthens as pressure approaches. Plz clear my doubts

Rajesh said...

Please post your name: Jet streams are very important for weather. In fact the jet sreaa are among the first indications of change in climate, change in season.It is from this level at 200-2500 hpa that the weather below is actually controlled. We can predict the formation of a Low, or track its movements from the study of divergence and convergence in the jet streams.

Jet streams are easterlies over the sub continent in the monsoon months.
Studying these winds, we can get a rough estimate of the Monsoon arrival , or rather the change of Monsoon winds.

Seeing these winds, we can look into the development of lowers winds, and sea level pressure changes.

The date given by vagaries for Monsoon over Maldives is approximately on line.

shiekhz said...

Sir u didnt mention the increasing rainy activit over tibet, and whats is brewing off somalia? Models showing enhance Low level jet by 8th June

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