Friday, May 17, 2019

Monsoon Watch -4.....17th May

The bay branch of the South West Monsoon is gaining fast, and the South West winds are picking up.
The surface South West winds will be strong from the 20th of May in the Bay. In depth of the winds indicate the strengthening after 23rd.

The South West Monsoon will advance into South and Middle Andamans on 20th of May (As mentioned here).


South Andamans: 20th May
Andamans Islands : 23rd May

Maldives:  26th/27th May 
Sri Lanka: 30th/31st May

Kerala & NE States: 4th/5th June.
Coastal Karnatak: 8th June
Goa 9th/10th June
Mumbai  & West Bengal: 13th/14th June.

Arabian Sea Branch winds are weak North of Equator. Somalia Current yet to strengthen and SST not yet dropped.



South West Monsoon will  advance into Coastal South Gujarat by 18th/20th and remaining Saurashtra and North Gujarat (Barring Kutch) by 24th June. Central India by 20th and would cover New Delhi by 29th June.
Monsoon will advance into Pakistan in 1st week of July.

Quantum for June and July:



 Overall Season, it seems, on all India basis, and on overall distribution, will be between 96%-101% of the Normal..

Meanwhile for the mainland  India, another Western Disturbance (M-4) has entered the Sub Continent region, and will bring rains to the North and North West on 17th/18th.

But, there will be pause in the Western disturbances after 22nd, which will enable the seasonal Low to form properly.today the core of the Seasonal Low is at 1004 mb.
This in turn will create the formation of the west coast off shore trough after the 23rd of May.

Heat wave conditions will continue to prevail in Vidharbh and Telengana. Some cities maximum ( Chandrapur, Brahmapuri, Nagpur) in Vidharbh will touch between 45-47c, and 30-32c as minimum next 2/3 days

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3 comments:

NilaY Wankawala said...

Wonderful to note your comments -"Overall Season, it seems, on all India basis, and on overall distribution, will be between 96%-101% of the Normal.."

Cumulus arjun said...

Nice to near normal rainfall in India predicted by you. But sir, skymet is predicting less rains in Mumbai this June and July but you are predicting excess? Pls clarify. Thanks

shiekhz said...

What for sindh sir?

Posted Saturday night *Mumbai* spotty rains till Sunday as estimated. Saturday city saw 10 mms and scruz 4 mms. Sunday will see some thun...