Monday, September 10, 2018


A well compiled and exhaustive article on the subject 
written by Vineet Kumar Singh (Vagarian)

Vineet has worked very hard for this analysis...A must read for all Meteorologists.

Causes and Analysis of the Below Normal Hurricane Activity in North Atlantic during June -August 2018.

 Click here for Doc

 Click here for Pdf

8 comments:

sset said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sset said...

Great research article on hurricane research and thanks Abhijeet/team for sharing research...

El-nino impact on hurricanes.
In general, warm El Niño events are characterized by more tropical storms and hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and a decrease in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hurr/enso.rxml

But as of now we have twin hurricanes threatening US...from pacific side Hurricane Olivia and Atlantic side Hurricane Florence. This is like our Indian twin systems one from AS and other from Bay trying to dump massive torrentials across Central India,GUJ,RAJ,MAHA...

Interestingly we also have different el-nino flavor - 'El Niño Modoki' - sst are warmer in central pacific rather than eastern equatorial pacific.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

sset said...

Seems some kind of disaster is likely to happen over Kerala... suddenly water from rivers,wells have vanished, soaring temperatures, fissures have appeared....

https://www.firstpost.com/india/kerala-after-the-flood-rivers-dry-up-mercury-rises-and-earthworms-die-with-state-set-for-drought-after-deluge-5166821.html

This is like underground tsunami or whatever which is surprising scientist?

Ishan Vajpeyi said...

What's the Monsoon withdrawal scenario as of now in NW India?

sset said...

Add to this we have super typhoon churning fast:
Super typhoon' Mangkhut set to hammer the Philippines
Total 3 covering major oceans
west pacific ocean Hurricane Olivia, Atlantic ocean hurricane Florence, east pacific ocean typhoon Mangkhut.

What impact will this have on SWM withdrawal and NEM onset (if any)?

Vinod Desai said...

There is change in weather today with clouds and some rain this morning in mumbai..Is this a ray of hope we were waiting for since 2 months..

sset said...

Karnataka declares drought
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengaluru/rain-deficit-23-districts-of-karnataka-declared-drought-hit/articleshow/65803488.cms

At present almost 70-80% of southern India is in drought state or waiting for NEM to start.. Tamil Nadu, almost entire Andhra Pradesh except northern part near Orissa, entire North Karnataka, south east Karnataka is in drought.

Best states to receive uniform monsoon is Orissa, Maharashtra, MP, Chattisgadh...

Akshay Shah said...

Again sset giving one sided information only. As per TOI worst sufferer of monsoon this year is West and north india. In guj deficiency is as high as 27 pc as compared to south india where there's excess. Also reservoir position is much better in South. So SSet you are requested to not divert focus on rumours. Ideally guj should have declared drought but they are waiting for season to end unlike kar. Nowadays drought are more of political gimmicks rather than actual facts.

Posted Wednesday Afternoon:Position of "GAJA" 1130 am : 12.8/84.8  Winds: 75-85 gusting to 95  Status:Cyclonic Storm