Thursday, September 20, 2018

Posted 20th Thursday Night:

BB-11 , Estimated at  996 mb, now a deep depression,almost a cyclone (As per IMD norms, cyclone is classified with a core wind  speed of 34-47 knots, corresponding to 62-88 kmph,as estimated wind speed now average around 30-33 knts as per various agencies. DVORAK estimates winds at 30 knts.
The Southern segment shows very deep convective clouds. North is milder convection.
Location 18.2N and 86.3E...tracking Westwards now and expected to cross the A.P. /Odisha coast tonite.

Tracking W/NW,very heavy rainfall expected in Telengana on Friday and Marathwada on Saturday.Heavy showers on Friday in Hyderabad.

Interior Maharashtra Madhya Maharashtra will get thundershowers, including Konkan.

Mumbai will see increased thunder showers on Saturday and Sunday.
Cloudy, Thunder showers and occasional showers in Pune  till Monday.Cool day with 24c max on Saturday.
Thunder Showers also likely in Outer Townships of Mumbai.

Fizzling out to UAC on centre reaching M.P.


sset said...

Every year withdrawl of SWM is getting delayed only central India (Orissa, MAHA, MP,GUJ, RAJ) have maximum benefit. If NEM fails SE India will become desert (already Rayalseema is in desertification process).

sset said...

Please read...'Tamhini'_in_the_northern_region_of_Western_Ghats_of_India_AN_UNIDENTIFIED_HEAVY_RAINFALL_STATION_TAMHINI

Unknown said...

Very glad to see that SWM is coming back in a good way after a long period of silence. Hopefully it will help all the farmers in central India who are facing a deficit otherwise. Gujarat has so far not received any rains this year. Hope some SWM rain reaches there somehow. May the SWM last until mid October and bring more bountiful rains.


Unknown said...

It is not fizzes

Vinod Desai said...


What are your thoughts on the way monsoon has behaved this year.
How do you see remaining days of monsoon for Mumbai.It is disappointing till date.

sset said...

Look like one more typhoon brewing in east side - looks like stubborn SWM is no mood for retreating.. blockage for NEM...

Unknown said...

Why this monsoon is weak?any special reasons for that?

Nimish Thaker said...

Hi Rajeshbhai, with the passage of this Weather system (Cyclone Daye), what is the status of Monsoon withdrawal from India? Also, how do the last few days of SWM for Mumbai look? The weather has definitely turned warm and muggy in Mumbai since the last couple of days, typical of end September / October.

sset said...

Seems vagaries has underestimated BB-11.... First it has stalled withdrawl of SWM impacting NEM.. Another typhoon may spoil withdrawl?

Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Chandigarh on red-alert. Vigorous torrential 3 digit widespread rains (300-200mm) of rain. Schools closed.

BB-11 has unleashed bounty rains for Orissa,MP,Chattisgarh, Maharashtra Vidarbha, Rajasthan, UP, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh..... Who says Rajasthan,Haryana are dry places - it was in past - now no more since last 10 years climate change pattern

sset said...

Typhoon Trami churning fast. Will this again stall SWM withdrawl ?

Saurabh said...

Haryana and Rajasthan are arid places. Even after this depression which is an unexpected parting gift from this monsoon, both these places have received less than normal rainfall this year.
Haryana is 11% below normal.
Rajasthan is 5% below normal.

Here is the link.\Rainfall_Maps\Cumulative\State_Rainfall_Map\STATE_RAINFALL_MAP_COUNTRY_INDIA_cd.JPG&landingpage=other


sset said...

Saurabh -> why only focus North? South east Inida- Rayalseema (Cudapah, Chitoor, Anantapur..) are deficit by 60%, if NEM fails then it become 90%! worse than Thar desert. Many places over TN, SE KAR are waiting for NEM to start.)

Strong Western Disturbance is seen affecting the country and the subcontinent. Heavy rain and snow reported from Himalayas, and rain/thunder...