Saturday, September 08, 2018

8 September ..100 days of Monsoon 2018

Mumbai SCZ 2194 mms with 63 rainy days
( The far eastern townships of MMR have received upto 3500 mms with 80 rainy days and the surrounding ghats more than 7000 ) 

A) THE FIRST v/s NEXT 50 ..
Mumbai SCZ had a contrasting monsoon season so far (like 2013)..
The first 50 days had 1885 mms of rains..
The next 50 had just 309  ..

Vihar(8 kms straight line distance from Mumbai SCZ) had 2788 mms during first 50 days , 570 mms during next 50 days ..(Vihar 3360 mms)

The temps have been normal to slightly below normal though throughout the season at Mumbai..Lowest min 21.2 c , Lowest max 26.2 c 

Past few days have been breezy with partly cloudy skies and temps of 31 c / 24 c at SCZ(afternoon hum around 65% ) .
Brilliant September skies over North Mumbai today

The deccan plateau is cooler with Pune at 26.5 c /18.6 c during past 24 hrs . 
Aurangabad was 30 c / 18.6 c with pretty low afternoon humidity around 40 % .

The western ghats(Sahyadri) are generally cloudy with pretty cool temps of 21 c / 18 c.
 Around beautiful Sahyadri today morning (pic courtesy : Abhishek Apte)

Cold , foggy Mahabaleshwar @18 c  today afternoon (pic courtesy : Abhishek Apte)

In contrast to the last 2 Septembers recording good rains , this September has been dry at Mumbai with the odd showers till now .
It needs to be seen how much the thunderstorms towards month end will add to the monthly total ,currently at mere 28 mms..

Lowest rainfall Sep at Mumbai SCZ during past 60 years  ..
1987 .. 35 mms , 1986 .. 39 mms , 1991 .. 59 mms 2000..79 mms , 1968 ..88 mms 

Highest rainfall Sep at Mumbai SCZ during past 60 years  ..
1993 .. 905 mms , 1981 .. 821 mms , 2005 .. 744 mms 2016..712 mms , 2017 ..603 mms 
(All time record 1954.. 920 mms )

Mumbai SCZ during the last 19 years (21st century)..
  • more than 3000 mms of annual rains : 5 times 
  • less than 2000 mms of annual rains : 2 times 
Mumbai SCZ(western suburbs) latest monsoon averages of the 21st century 
..(Eastern suburbs average 10-30 % higher rains)

Because of it's scintillating performance at the top of the order , Mumbai SCZ still tops the highest rain capital list.
The top improvers during the second half of the season have been Dehradun with 1400 mms and Gangtok 1150 mms during past 50 days ..
  • Highest rain state capitals
1) Mumbai 2194 .. 2) Panji 2096 .. 3) Gangtok 2014.. 4) Dehradun 1895 .. 5) Port Blair 1567 

  • India .. Top 10 most populated cities (rain in mms)


sset said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Abizer kachwala said...

Excellent data presented!!!

Rajesh said...

extremely good compilation and Mumbai information of the current season and archives...well done Rohit

Unknown said...

Very nice and informative compilation. I hope the South West Monsoon can linger more than normal this year. That would really help regions like Gujarat which is facing a severe deficit this year. The farmers especially.


sset said...

Droughts hit southern India

Massive earthworms perish due to heat....

SWM should withdraw early else NEM can fail. Wind-directions must change. This time during break monsoon period no rains over southern india - interiors and SE part.

Vinod Desai said...

Really awesome..
We had good shower last night which lasted for an hour also this morning we had good rains around malad goregaon area. After long time felt as if monsoon is still very much there.

Rawat said...

Lots of people on social media are sharing views about Rare clear blue sky and clean air in Delhi. Thanks to September rains.But sad its ending now.

Karan Kumbhar said...

Sir... Any retreating rains for Maharashtra ?

Looks like a long dry spell for now.

Rajesh said...

Karan.. See latest snippets

Rajesh said...

Karan please give your email

sset said...

Even though we all belong to India, everyone is concerned about rains and water for its native state... Anoop is worried about UP Delhi, Akshay(who sends sarcastic blogs) about GUJ/RAJ, Vinod about MAHA.... I too am worried about my place SE India - Rayalseema (which is worse than Thar desert)..Delhi / UP has scored rocket during Aug/Sep.

Sunny said...

I personally feel there is nothing grumble about the long dry phase and n Mumbai monsoon .cause Mumbai has got excellent amount of rain as compared to other cities .
Look at Delhi 700 mm and people over there r happy with that amt .
Then why we should complain ..for 2194 mm..see the difference.
Even though it's less compared to mumbai standards but still it's far more better then any other major city .in India .
Even Panjim in Goa .is left behind

Cumulus arjun said...

Nice post Rajesh sir

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology

Issued 11 September 2018

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

El Niño still possible in 2018

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However model outlooks continue to indicate El Niño is possible from late-spring 2018. When assessed with current observations, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook stands at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño forming in the coming months; double the normal chance.

There were only small changes to most indicators of ENSO in the past fortnight. The central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average, with greatest warmth in the central to western Pacific (NINO4; +0.6 °C), while water below the surface remains somewhat warmer than average. Atmospheric indicators generally remain neutral, although trade winds are slightly weaker over parts of the western Pacific. A weakening of the trade winds is one of the most important precursors at this point for any possible El Niño event, and will be watched closely.

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the tropical Pacific is likely to warm to El Niño thresholds by the end of spring. El Niño during spring typically results in below-average rainfall in eastern and northern Australia. In summer, this drying influence retracts to tropical regions of Australia, although the possibility of high temperatures elsewhere remains high.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. However, two of six international climate models suggest a positive IOD event may develop before the end of spring. A positive IOD during spring typically reduces rainfall in central and southern Australia, and can exacerbate any El Niño-driven rainfall deficiencies.

Regardless of El Niño or positive IOD developing, the climate outlook for spring is for a continuation of drier and warmer than average conditions across eastern and southwest Australia.

More information

Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057

Next update expected on 25 September 2018

Karan Kumbhar said... sir...

Saw snippets sir... It mentioned Mumbai.

Yes SSET ,

We all have regional preference because we want regions to do well.

But we don't go on lamenting if other regions do well... And we don't exaggerate facts.

It's not that I or Rajesh sir or others are controlling rains according to our will.

So please stop sounding like this is a conspiracy.

 Talking about the current  Mumbai  Pollution