Thursday, September 06, 2018

Posted Thursday Night...6th September:

1. The winds, anti cyclone , at 850 levels, changing directions and indications at 200 level. OLR & UTH scene and poor cross equtorial winds, indicate the start of the withdrawal of the current South West Monsoon season from Western half of Pakistan. 



We await the fizzling out ofthe BB-10 (depression as on Thursday) , and then announce the withdrawal from Pakistan and Western Rajasthan and Kutch, around 10th/12th September. Gujarat region can estimate withdrawal after 20th.

2. BB-10 being extremely active on Odisha on Wednesday and Thursday. Some really heavy rains in Odisha in last 24 hrs:Bhubaneswar city-104mm
 Earsama-435mm
Paradip-412mm,Kujanga-375mm, Kendrapada-340mm
Marsaighai-336mm, Mohakaalapada-320mm
Pattamundei-311mm, Derabis-298mm
Bari-271mm, Tirtol-260mm
Salipur-245mm, Bingarpur-242mm
Gardapur-240mm, Aul-226mm
Ragunathpur-211mm, Alipingal-209mm
Jagatsingpur-195mm, Jajpur-190mm.
System will weaken and track W/NW and fizzle out over West M.P. by 9th.But good rainfall expected in M.P. next 2 days.
Some places in East Vidharbh will get sharp showers.

Forecast for 7th Friday/ 7th Saturday and 9th Sunday

Jabalpur: Generally cloudy skies with moderate showers. Decreasing rains from 9th .
New Delhi: Cloudy skies, with some showers in some parts of the Capital.Rains decreasing from 10th . We see Monsoon withdrawal from extreme West Rajasthan around 10th. Depending on the axis, the anticyclone and OLR positions , we may estimate the withdrawal from Delhi around 20th September.

Mumbai: Friday/Saturday and Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with warm sunshine. Few showers in some  parts of the city

Kolkata: Cloudy with showers on Friday. Few showers in parts of city on Saturday/Sunday.

5 comments:

Nilesh Ladhad said...

So,dry withdrawal of monsoon from south Gujarat, sir??

Vinod Desai said...

Rains are missing but temperatures are within control..

Karan Kumbhar said...

Sir
Is there a chance for good rainfall in Maharashtra in September??
Situation doesn't look very promising.

sset said...

Early withdrawl of SWM is very essential for any possible rains to set over Rayalseema and Tamil Nadu... Rayalseema is bone dry...all agriculture abandoned.

Babylon_99 said...

Looks like the SWM's withdrawal gonna be delayed this year too, just like it has been in the past few years, and curiously, GFS forecast models are indicating rainfall over the Northern Plains between 20-22 September, which was roughly the same period it rained in NW India before the withdrawal commenced last year. What's your take on this @Rajesh Sir?

Whole Konkan coast of Maharashtra & Goa including Mumbai seeing one of weak monsoon since Aug. No typical revival was seen after thir...