Monday, September 24, 2018

Whole Konkan coast of Maharashtra & Goa including Mumbai seeing one of weak monsoon since Aug. No typical revival was seen after third week of July till now due to absence of off-shore trough formation or vortex formation as all systems from Bay, either fizzled over MP or moved N/NE over Delhi/UP region and also dry winds were prominent on mid-level in same period! So no revival was seen in Aug-Sep. Even current BB-11 has moved north, which is causing flooding in HP/PB area! And Mumbai/west coast belt remain eluded!

As Vagarian Rohit has shared interesting data of Mumbai in 100 days of Monsoon 2018 on 8th Sep 2018 post, so from it taken this Sep Mumbai rainfall data.

Lowest rainfall Sep at Mumbai SCZ during past 60 years are as follow:
In Yr.1987, saw driest September with mere 35 mms!!
Yr.1986 saw 39 mms
Yr.1991 saw 59 mms
Yr.2000 saw 79 mms
Yr.1968 saw 88 mms

Current year 2018, September has recorded 62.5 mms till today in SCZ, so is not driest month but may be joining lowest Sep rainfall list. Till today sitting on 4th driest but still 5 days in hand so may be not come under top 5 driest Sep as still some TS chances persist which may be of hit & miss nature as always so if gets 1 or 2 hit TS spells in SCZ observatory area then may cross triple digit mark total for Sep month so let’s hope for the best!

Driest September for Colaba was in 1896 with just 41.1 mms recorded in whole month period! Current year 2018, September has recorded mere 23.5 mms till today in Colaba, hope it doesn't turn out to be driest Sep!!

Driest September for Dahanu was in 1952 with just 25.4 mms recorded in whole month period! Current year 2018, September has recorded mere 20.8 mms till today in Dahanu, hope it doesn't turn out to be driest Sep!!

Colaba & Dahanu driest data input  from Rajesh Sir


Saurabh said...

I was reacting to the following comment from you

"Who says Rajasthan,Haryana are dry places - it was in past - now no more since last 10 years climate change pattern"

That sir is not true. They are arid and there is no increasing trend as far as the monsoon rains are concerned.

Here is a link for Haryana.

Haryana in the last 13 years has had 10 years of below monsoon rain.

If you do not agree please present data/facts. Opinions should be backed by facts.

As regards North East monsoon, it starts after 15th October so where is the delay.

Monsoon withdrawal is not like a train so just because it will withdraw from West Rajasthan almost 4 weeks behind schedule, does not mean it is going to withdraw from East UP 4 weeks behind schedule. Quite likely the monsoon will be out of East UP on time, that is by the end of September.


NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology

Issued 25 September 2018

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

El Niño WATCH continues; signs of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole emerge

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. While climate models suggest some easing in the chance of El Niño in 2018, half of the surveyed models still indicate an event is possible. When assessed with current observations, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook therefore remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning the chance of El Niño in 2018 remains around 50%; double the normal likelihood.

Oceanic and atmospheric indicators of ENSO are generally neutral. While sub-surface waters have recently warmed, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are only slightly above average. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index remains weakly negative, and short of El Niño levels. Trade winds have recently been weaker than usual in the western Pacific, and may remain weak in the coming weeks. Weakened trade winds can be a precursor to El Niño development.

Climate models now indicate less warming of the tropical Pacific is likely compared with last month. As a result, fewer models now predict an El Niño in 2018—only three of eight models exceed El Niño thresholds in 2018, and a fourth does so in early 2019. The rest remain neutral.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has exceeded the positive IOD threshold (+0.4 °C) in the last fortnight. However, it would take several more weeks of similar values before a positive IOD event is considered established. Model outlooks currently suggest positive IOD values are likely to continue through the austral spring, before returning to neutral values in late November to December. Find out more about the Indian Ocean Dipole.

A positive IOD and El Niño during spring typically means below average rainfall for southern, eastern and central Australia. When a positive IOD and El Niño occur together, the reduction in rainfall is often more widespread.

More information

Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057

Next update expected on 9 October 2018

sset said...

Saurabh - with all respects to all states...
what we require is proper low pressure, depressions to pass through SE India... which is not happening for past few years either in NEM period or SWM period. Either lows move again to NE regions or are duds or move over to AS (like 2017 ockhi). How can region survive with odd thunderstorms and convictions? Agriculture requires proper widespread rains..Let us what happens now 2018.

sset said...

Great Rajesh sir, Abhij modak... "weather without boundaries"....

Unknown said...

Why this year very few weather update by vagaries team ? Only few rain or weather prediction for India this year by vagaries.

Rajesh said...

Sawan: I assure you Vagaries team will be active...dull periods in most of India dissappointed us in September. Thanks.

  23rd June After a record 39 days (14may-21june), delhi safdarjung recorded below 40c temperature Data From Vag. Vineet☝ ------------------...