Tuesday, May 06, 2014




Kerala Flooding pics sent by vagarian Santosh...see Inter Active Page

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Posted Thursday 11.30 am IST:

191 mms in Kochi, 88 mms in Kohzikode till 8.30 am IST Thursday...
Location of BB-1:

Western Half Segment shows heavy rains....

Heavy Rainfall warning for N.I. Karnataka (Belgaum), Goa and South Konkan.

Mumbai cloudy, getting overcast by afternoon evening. Thunder Cell from Eastern side may drift over parts of City...Outer Townships in East can get the thunder squall on Thursday evening.




Posted Wednesday Night:

Light rains forecasted in South Konkan (yesterday post ) occured on Wednesday, and measured with 11 mms in Ratnagiri, 8 mms in Bhira, and 1-5 mms in some stations. 
Ghat stations too, as expected , received some showers with Mahableshwar and Pune AP getting 7 mms and Lonavala 6 mms with hail.
Belgaum received 26 mms...All rains till 8.30 pm IST Wednesday.

We had earlier explained, that the existing LWD in the peninsula would move off shore off the West coast, and embed the system. But, the LWD remained inland, and the embedded BB-1 moved along the trough N/NW and now lies over Interior Karnataka. So, instead of going a bit off the coast of Karnataka, and re entering, the system has moved directly into the interiors of Karnataka.

BB-1 it seems is resisted by the dry air (see image), and would be unable to cross into the Arabian Sea.


Would possibly track Northwards, and weaken over Northern AP region .

Thursday 
Heavy rains in Karnataka, coastal and Interior, and Goa. Heavy falls in isolated places.

Mumbai: Cloudy and very stuffy. Warm day and night....light drizzles in some parts in evening, specially Eastern Suburbs. 
Eastern Outer Townships: Cloudy with thundery developments by afternoon/evening. Squally winds in some pockets from local over heating. Thunder showers likely in some parts and vicinity. 
Ghat regions too will get evening thunder showers.
South Konkan will get showers, which will prove damaging to existing mango fruits.

Friday
Rains decreasing in the Konkan and Interior Karnataka. Around Goa, heavy rains persist in pockets around the ghats.
But increase in rains in adjacent AP. Heavy showers for Hyderabad on Friday, as system moves there.
Some isolated thunder heads may still pop up around ghat regions around Mumbai. A cell may drift and bring rains to some parts.

Saturday, rains decrease.

Brief on M-2: M-2 currently as shown in Map..moves East. Next 2 days Thursday and Friday, rains likely in North, Plains of NW India and North Pakistan. Rains in Sindh. Storms likely in Sukkur and Punjab regions of Pakistan.
Islamabad region received showers, and showed a temperature 33c and 17c. But Karachi heated up to 40c.Makran region can get thunder showers.

Meanwhile, Dust storm Video from Badlapur  (Abhijit Modak).. see here and here
Badlapur rains today...



Storm and Lightning Superb Video over Kolkata on 3rd May...see here, sent by Vagarian Santosh


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted Tuesday 6th May, Night:

BB-1 remains almost stationary since last position. Situated at 6.5N and 78E, and at 1002 mb pressure. Winds are at 25 knts around the centre. On Tuesday, Thiruvananthpuram received 71 mms in 9 hrs till 5.30 pm IST.
Some of the heavy overnight rains ( mms) in Kerala, TN and Karntaka...Hosanagara 66, Mayiladuthurai 65, Muthupet 58, Karaikal 53, Londa 42, 
Neyyattinkara 38, Thiruvananthapuram AP 33 

Currently, heavy rain is concentrated in the Far NW segment, off the Kerala/South Karntaka coast.

System will deepen into a depression in next 12 hrs, and track NW initially.

By Wednesday evening, the upper trough from WD (already dipping to 23N), and the High pressure ridge, will prevent further movement Northwards , beyond Karnataka coast. As as mentioned earlier , BB-1 should cross the Karnataka coast to move inland by Thursday.

Wednesday evening and Thursday will see very heavy rains in Karnataka, Kerala and to some extent in Goa.
Coastal Karnataka and Kerala will get downpours amounting to upto 75 -90 mms in 24 hrs (Wed/Thurs). 
Unusually heavy rains in pockets along the Goa, Karnataka coastline may bring up to 50-60 mms in 24 hrs (Wed/Thurs).

Light rains in South Konkan and Southern Maharashtra next 2 days.

M-1, after being stationary for a day, is now "pushed" Eastwards by the trough of M-2.
M-2, as a trough in the upper levels, is already formed and is over Iran. The trough from M-2 extends Southwards into the 23N region.

Next 2 days, M-2 will approach Pakistan, with precipitation in the Northern regions.Rainfall gradually increases from Thursday. Islamabad remains cloudy with light rain, but increase in precipitation from Friday/Saturday.
Friday and Saturday, precipitation extends into Sindh regions and NW plains of India. Delhi NCR may see showers on Friday and Saturday.

Against earlier predictions, if M-2 is moving in, it may not permit the undue heating up of the Northern Plains of the Sub Continent in the immediate next few days.

Mumbai, partly cloudy and stuffy. Very humid and cloudy on Thursday and Friday. Light rains expected in the Pune and Ghats areas on Thursday/Friday.

Very squally weather ( W/SW winds) over Kolkata on Wednesday and Thursday. 
Dust raising Squalls in Saurahtra and Kutch next 2 days. 


7 comments:

jon said...

massive rains over S TN
tiruvattar in kanyakumari dist records 25cm

karthikjohnny said...

initial rainfall figs.. some places in S TN has recorded extreme rains

Servalar dam-40cm
papanasam-30cm
tiruvattar-25cm

KHYATI PANDIT said...

sir is it going to ran in mumbai the weather has turn out to be dark

Abhijit said...

Severe dust storm & squally gust cyclonic winds from SE with Heavy Rain lashed Badlapur today evening.

Dust was blown due to squally gusty winds !! Never experienced such huge dust clouds from ground to 200 feet above ground..

Atul Naik said...

Gusty winds with rains and thunder lashing most parts of Goa right now. Reports of tree uprooting from many areas.

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Delhi airport @5.30pm was around 39 c at 7pm temp fell to 25c . Fall of 14 c in less than 2 hours !!

prabhu archana said...

periodic heavy rains in kerala measuring min .70 inches per day... how lng will this persist rajesh sir? and we are getting elnino threats for the upcoming monsoon... are there chances for.monsoon to fail?