Saturday, May 24, 2014

Posted Sunday Night

The system (BB-3?) is now well marked at 1002 mb and is Located just South of Parlakimidi (Odisha) n the Sea. Expected to cross land Early Monday morning near the North AP/South Odisha coast, near Chatrapur.

 Prominent rainfall in Odisha on Sunday (daytime till 8.30 pm IST) : Balasore 107 mms, Bhubaneshwar 93 mms, Puri 64 mms, Gopalpur 58 mms. Kolkata had a rainy day, max 32c,  with 8 mms at Alipore.

Delhi Sjung had a dust storm on Sunday evening.
The odd 50% chance for a storm in Delhi to disturb the PM oath ceremony.

Posted Sunday afternoon

Low is moving along the trough now, as it has gone into the upper levels...Located at 18N and 85.3E, 125 kms South of Ganjam. Moving NW. Winds at estimated 20 knts at centre and estimated pressure 1002 mb...

Posted Saturday Night:

A new Low forms off the Odisha Coast. Situated at 18N and 87E, it is about 1002 mb. 
Arguably, it is not BB-2 as apparent. BB-2 had dissipated, as shown in our morning post chart. 
Simultaneously, the predicted Low was mentioned  few days back. It has formed in the trough running across North MP thru Jharkhand and Odisha. 
Another point worth noting is that last mentioned location of BB-2 was 16N and 91.5E, barely 24 hrs ago...and the new Low is located at 18N and 87E, an very odd position for BB-2 to have "jumped" to (if it was the same)).

Low will move inland thru Northern region of Odisha, and due to prevalent moisture, bring very heavy rains in North Odisha and adjoining Bengal.





Due to the UAC in the WD trough, Punjab, Haryana and Parts of Delhi NCR can get thunder squalls on Sunday.
As the trough weakens, Monday would see isolated thunder squalls popping up in North Rajasthan, adjoining UP and parts of Delhi NCR.

Monday may see Thunder Squalls with rain in parts of Delhi NCR. Storms may drift into the Southern regions from adjoining areas surrounding South Delhi. 
Monday's swearing-in Ceremony of the Prime Minister may see a 50% chance of a thunder squall, with gusty dust raising winds. Partly Cloudy day.

BB3 gives very heavy rains to Andhra and Odisha, Record Rainfall in Pradeep's page


8 comments:

Wasim Athar said...

Rajesh sir predictions are bang on target. Kolkatans are finally having pre monsoon showers from the morning as indicated by him few days back.

Jay said...

Sir, what is the outlook for the Arabia sea branch of the monsoon? Interested to get any insight abt when vidharbh and west mp will see monsoon rains.

Tks

rajesh said...

wasim: Thanks...it was estimated on the base of the Low forming, and the trough (shown in map) being the guiding track. Even this Low was estimated 4 days ago, when BB-2 was strong...

sset said...

Today highest temperature - as usual
Rentachintala recorded the highest maximum temperature of 47 degree Celsius in the region.
Very likely in next few days to touch 48 degrees

kesava rajan said...

What about precipitaions chances at CENTRAL TAMILNADU?

Abhijit said...

Odisha battered ! Rainfall ending 8.30am today.

Balasore 211mm
Bhubaneswar 140mm

abizer Kachwala said...

sir, it rained today in nagothane roha taluka raigad dist. It started raining at 5:30 and ended at 6:10. can you tell will it continue to recieve showers. sir it rained much days before but you told pre monsoon rain will start after 1st. can you give me some information and some forecast in north konkan.will it rain tommorow.

Abhijit said...

Today evening sudden sky turn dark with strong winds from NE and then came moderate to heavy rain for 20mins in Badlapur.