Thursday, May 22, 2014

Posted Saturday Morning:

1. The "original" BB-2 almost vanishes on Friday night, and as explained in post of Friday Night (below), becomes a Low merging with the broader trough.




2. Anticipating the trough "corridor", we see this forming and the embedded Low in the trough re grouping again.





This "fade out" fade in" happened in 12-18 hrs, and seemed apparently without break.23rd Sat image was showing very weak cloudings
 ..All was explained in 2 posts below...Now. wait and anticipate this system to cross the Odisha coast..


Thursday Night >>>Friday Night:

As Vagaries had mentioned on Thursday Night ("it will weaken from now"), BB-2 weakened from 998 mb down to 1002 mb, a well marked Low. But having remained stationary at 16N and 91.5E. Winds are down to a pleasant 20 knts.

Now, let us "leave this" system, as we dont see much remaining.

All attention on the lower and mid level trough from Bihar Southwards along the East Coast of India. We are looking for another Low to be embedded in the trough, within next 24 hrs. This was mentioned on Wednesday in Vagaries, and could possibly form off the Odisha Coast, and move inland. 

Some "pockets" in Punjab (both sides), Haryana,  and some parts of Delhi NCR had Thunder showers on Friday evening. Vineet reports of light rains from Meerut. Mohali Cricket was disturbed.

Latest Monsoon Advance shown on Current Weather Page

Posted Friday Noon IST:

Where is the system BB-2 now ? Vagaries mentions and says it has moved slightly SW, and is estimated at 16N and 91.5E...weakened again to 1002 mb with core winds estimated at 30 knts.
Does it tally with the other models ? How can we verify whether the centre is at the above location or not ? In the current system, some say the centre is seen to the West....
But, by seeing the Satellite image, that is the mistake that is normally made. 

How do we Locate the Centre ? 
Do not go by the cloud formation seen in the satellite image to locate the centre. Check the image for spiral bands location, and with experience, see the curvature and thickness of the spiral bands clouds. Location of clouds is mis leading, as the clouds may form in any segment. 
See the wind maps, and locate the centre...even the rainfall may not necessarily be around the centre...
Given below 2 Images to Locate System centre on your own..




Posted on Thursday Night:

1. BB-2 has moved N/NE, and is positioned at 17N and 92E on Thursday night. Core pressure estimated at 996 mb and core winds in the SW segment estimated at 30-35 knts. So, the deepening is not in full swing, and now onwards may weaken a bit as it tracks N/NE.




The mid level trough in the North Bay along the 21N line (i had mentioned yesterday), has started showing signs of appearing. On becoming a full fledged trough, Vagaries sees, as mentioned earlier, a Low moving towards the Odisha coast. Fresh Low may form as soon as 24th/25th. 

Some international models see this trough in the North Bay forming sooner, and give a possibility of BB-2 itself getting in the groove and moe Westwards towards Odisha.

Either Way,Repeat: Kolkata could see the pre monsoon thunder showers from 25th May.

Dry gusty and squally winds ( 30 knts) from the NW will sweep Nagpur in the next 2/3 days. Dust storms possible in the vicinity.

Hot (41-43c) and dusty for Delhi NCR this weekend. Isolated Thunder Squalls in some pockets of Punjab as WD passes in Kashmir and HP.



Mumbai sees partly cloudy and humid weekend. Days around 33c and nights at 27/28c. Pre Monsoon activity after 1 st June...

Pune also dry and partly cloudy. Days around 37/38c, but clear nights will keep it pleasant at 21/22c.

Bangalore has good chances of '' alternate" thunder showers till next Tuesday, 27th May at least.

Pakistan: With the mercury shooting up to 48c at Larkana and Sukkur, we see the 50c mark by this Month end as expected. 
A WD in the Northern most regions will pass away this weekend. Some patches of isolated Thunder squalls (weekend) in the Punjab (Pak and India).
Not affecting the heat of the plains.

Monsoon remains stationary and un changed..as shown in Monsoon Advance Map on Current Weather Page

Daily One Page information containing Daily Rainfall, Rainfall Toppers, Norwestor, Cyclone Speeds, Top 24 hr Rainfall, Wettest Spells and Rainfall Records etc on Pradeep's Page

Jayesh Mehta is back with the Lake Positions of Mumbai...see Mumbai Page

9 comments:

Rajesh Kumar said...

Finally north in extreme heat wave grip..

Vijayanand said...

On Tuesday and Wednesday we had decent rain in south bangalore. This morning witnessed low fast moving clouds sweeping from west. First signs of impending sw monsoon.

Krishnakumar Bulusu said...

Hi ,

Any idea of BB-2 heading to south coastal ap and north TN..imd has suggested that it is tracking SW...

I could see a change in wind pattern today from sw to kind of NNE....not sure though

desperately waiting for Rain

regards
krishna

prabhu archana said...

im totally confused rajesh sir... im a lil out of track wid d technical terms uv mentioned sry(im not familiar wid d techy terms)... will there be heavy rain in kerala idukki this june??? plz respond asap so we can be prepared...

sset said...

It is very clear (by past 5 years statistics) SE India hottest/driest place of India. No longer RAJ jaisalmer. Geography needs to be re-written. Today Rentachintala­46.8 and Ongole­46.2. Likely to cross 47deg!!!

As stated by Rajesh sir, TN under heat wave!! Chennai 42, Hyderabad 42. Proper may agninakshatram.

It will be miracle if Bsy low moves down south into north TN???

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Big TS has moved in NCR from SW

vicky08571 said...

what do you think of this prediction...

http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2014/05/monsoon-2014-good-news-is-that-super-el.html

rajesh said...

prabhu archana: Initially, first 2 days of June will see an increasing trend in rainfall.
Idukki District and the plantation regions will get regular showers commencing "monsoon style" from around 3rd June.So, ist week of June (7 days) can see some very heavy showers. Overcast skies and cool conditions in the hills.
June will see a normal rainfall...and average rainfall the Idukki Disrtict can expect in June i 700 mms, normal this year.

prabhu archana said...

awesome sir... the climate is cloudy with ocasional drizzils for the last two days... thanx a ton sir vagaries rocks:)