Monday, May 19, 2014

Wednesday Evening: BB-2 moved North..and at 16N and 91 E...deepens to depression at 1000 mb...expected to turn NE now....full report tonite at 11. pm IST

Wednesday Morning 10 am IST:
BB-2, stationary as last night...15N and 91E....25 knts....same expectations ,no changes in estimate

Inland trough has shifted slightly Eastwards, approx over Telengana thru adjoing Karnatak and Westrn TN


Posted Tuesday Night:

Low in Bay now lies at 15N and 91E...at 1002 mb and 25 knts winds at core.
The Map shows the dry air tring to "invade" from the SW of the system. The wind shear in the West and South of Low is likely to push the Low in a N/NE track, initially and then curving NE.
It will pull the SWM Northwards, and quickly bring it to the Myanmar coast up to 20N.

The effect of the system, to an extent, has advanced the SWM into the Maldives. Kadhdedhdhoo recorded 66 mms and Kadhoo 22 mms. Winds are expected to gust to 35 
mph.

The rains over Goa and N.I. Karnataka, will last for 1 day more on Wednesday. The trough currently running from MP to the Arabian Sea runs thru South MP, South Mah and Goa. 
This will shift to its normal perpendicular position from Thursday, and we see the rainfall pattern shifting Southwards towards S.Karnataka and Kerala.

Mumbai, no change in forecast ( Put up on 19th on Mumbai Page).. From 35c in the day, we see the days to around 33c, but stuffy humid nights at 27/28c...and partly cloudy.

Kolkata, will see the peak heating on Wednesday/Thursday. Maybe 42c....and then pre monsoon showers on 25th May.

From Thursday, the Sindh region of Pakistan starts heating up, and reaching 46c by friday 23rd, and 50c by May end. heat wave spreads to rest of Sindh and Balochistan.
Hot weather for 22nd in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Entire NW and North India in the 42-44c range, but going above 45c in UP and Rajasthan from 23rd/24th May.

Delhi NCR, will sizzle in a heat wave from Friday 23rd May...shooting up to 43c. 
And Delhi will see rising temperatures at night starting from Wednesday morning registering around 29c/30c.

See Mumbai Page for Mumbai Forecast
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Latest South West Monsoon Progress map on Current Weather Page

11 comments:

Abhijit said...

Massive overnight rain lashes Belgaum & Goa !
Belgaum AP 50mm & Panji 40mm rainfall till 5.30am today..

Hrishikesh said...

No rain in Mumbai unfortunately it is very hot and stuffy as forecasted though it is cloudy but no rain till now

sam khan said...

Vasai got sharp showers for 5 mins around 7.30 am today.

sam khan said...

So atlast Vasai has started getting it's pre-monsoon shower's .

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Sir, can upcoming WD later in this week halt heating in northern plains?

Hrishikesh said...

No rain in western suburb of mumbai hope to see rain tonight

Wasim Athar said...

Rajesh sir when is this terribly hot and humid weather take a respite in kolkata and what is the rrason fo r this un usual record heat and absence of nor wester this season ? Kindly throw some light.

rajesh said...

Anoop: next WD should be restricted to Northern Hills...Heat wave coming this week,

Wasim: Kolkata is hot no doubt. The persistent trough and horizontal trough position keeps the normal rains away from the region...expect the trough to become vertical, and pre monsoon showers from 25th or 26th..

Vijayanand said...

Rained in bangalore last evening and night.
From 3:50 pm to 4:10 pm good rain in south bangalore. From 7.00 pm to midnight it was drilling.

rajesh said...

Vijayanand: as per the forecast map, Blore is put just on the border of Dark blue and purple...11 mms in city and 23 mms today at AP
Pre monsoon showers to start from 27th..i feel

Neeraj said...

very hot in Kathmandu. Prolonged heat - daytime high in excess of 30C for the past two weeks, past 10 days it has 31 or above with the highest at 33 C. Though does not sound very hot compared to other parts of the subcontinent (with expected 50 C in Sind as per Rajesh sir), its hot for city not used to prolonged heat of this nature.