Sunday, May 04, 2014

Posted Tuesday Morning:

BB-1 tracked 110 kms West since last report, and is at 6N and 78E...at 1004 mb. ...more on Tuesday evening

Delhi NCR received thunder showers in some parts. S'jung measured 15 mms, result of moving M-1 as mentioned on Sunday. Should move away today and bring in the heat wave...

Posted Monday Night:

BB-1 has moved West, and stationed at 7N and 79E on Monday Night. Several parts of Southern TN and Kerala got showers. Thiruvananthpuram measured 29 mms till 8.30 pm IST on Monday.

Tracking N/NW from here. Under the influence of the upper winds at 500 mb levels.
heaviest rains expected in Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thuthukodi and Ramanathpuram regions of TN. Southern Kerala, upto Kochi may receive heavy showers. 

Bangalore will be cloudy, and will get thunder showers from Tuesday, increasing from Wednesday. Around 40-50 mms between Wednesday and Thursday.

LWD will be shifting west. Off the coast, BB-1 will get embedded in the LWD trough, and may emerge in the Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast. 
Heavy rains in Southern Interior Karnataka and coastal Karnataka from Tuesday evening.

System could slip inland into Karnataka again on Thursday, and could bring torrential rains to Interior Karnataka and Goa on Thursday.

Next Post Tuesday Evening

Posted on Sunday Evening:

1....A Low ( BB-1 or AS-1 ?)  has formed just W/SW off Sri Lanka in the Gulf of Mannar. The Low, 1006 mb at sea level, extends up to 700 mb levels. This Low, is embedded in the "extended " LWD in the Central Peninsula regions. 

Heavy rains, 30/40 mms,  are expected on Monday and Tuesday in Southern TN regions of Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Ramnathpuram and Tuthukodi. Southern Kerala , including Thiruvananthpuram Kollam and Kochi ( 20-30 mms, and 50 mms in Western Ghats of Kerala) will get heavy thunder showers.

Now, seeing the synoptic situation and possibilities, we can first safely forecast the Low becoming Well Marked, and moving into the Arabian Sea by Tuesday. 
Currently, dry air, associated with the High Pressure in the Arabian Sea, is blocking the passage into the Western Arabian Sea region. 
The current flow of 700 mb level, that is the height of the Low, is driving it Westwards, but, on deepening, we may see the NE 200 hp stream dominating. But, the 100 mb stream, now at North blowing dirction, may influence the system to track Northwards.

After Tuesday 6th May, we may see the system moving N/NW, slightly off the coast, till Karnataka coast. Due to strong SW flow at 850 hp levels, it is possible that heavy rains , > 70 mms, will pour along the North Kerala and Karnataka coasts later in the week. 
Goa may see rains by the weekend, maybe up to 50 mms in a day. We shall review this again.

The next stage will be followed, and the up date after 24 hours , Monday evening.

2...Existing LWD will continue to pour rains in interior Karnataka, particularly more in S.I.K.

UAC over W.Bengal has moved Eastwards, and lies over Bangladesh and adjoining Tripura. This region will get very heavy thunder showers on Monday.

3....M-1 , with an induced low, is moving Eastwards into Northern India. Precipitation is likely in Northern pakistan, North and NW India next 2 days.

After a partly cloudy afternoon, with dust storm/thunder shower in some parts, the NCR region starts heating up from Tuesday to target >44c again.
Kolkata, the UAC has moved away, so some chance of Thunder shower in vicinity on Monday...and the party ends from Tuesday !

Monday, cloudy and some rain spells in Islamabad, and getting hot Tuesday onwards as M-1 moves away.
Parts of Interior Sindh, including Nawabshah, may get the thunder shower on Monday. Very hot ( >46c) from Tuesday onwards.
Hot for Karachi, as the mercury targets 39c by Tuesday.

Tentaively, I may say, M-2 may arrive next Monday...

See Pradeep's Page for Latest Rain amounts from Storms in Bengal...This Page is updated daily !

25 comments:

Wasim Athar said...

Yet another thundershower in kolkata in the late evening

sam khan said...

Looks like Bay of bengal branch is no more a good monsoon starter.

Hrishikesh said...

Any chances of rain in Mumbai from the low forming near kerela ?as it will give rain to goa then Mumbai mostly will get rain?

Abhijit said...

Chennai gets the benefit from Comorin low ! MNBKM recorded 13.9mm & NGBKM 9.1mm rainfall (overnight rains) ending 8.30am today..

vishwas shinde said...

Sir I thing this low look like a Cyclone....

vishwas shinde said...

I think this low is now look like a Cyclone on satelite img on imd.

Abhijit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Abhijit said...

Karaikal, Pudducherry recorded 49mm rainfall from 8.30am to 11.30am period today. Temp 25c with 6kmph NE breeze at 11.30am today.
So typical NE Monsoon like weather for S.TN coast !

Before that it was 32mm rainfall ending 8.30am today in Karaikal for past 24hrs.

Hrishikesh said...

The low is looking more like a cyclone forming in its initial stage sir can we expect mumbai to get any rain by it??

Abhijit said...

It's May but still Dry & Hot weather like March in N.Konkan !

Thane Enviro AWS max temp 37.7°C with min humidity of 30% today.
Thane IMD AWS max temp 38.4°C with min humidity of 30%today.
Badlapur(private reading) max temp 38.5°C with min humidity of 25% today.
Karjat IMD AWS estimated max temp 41.0°C with min humidity of 17% today.

Atul Naik said...

Rajeshbhai: Eagerly awaiting further development and your analysis for Goa!

Abhijit said...

Delhi S'Jung recorded 14.6mm rainfall till 5.30pm today. Temp down to 27.2c from max of 38.2c. So drop of 11c in few hrs !! with wind gust of 64.9kmph !

Hrishikesh said...

mumbai minimum temperature to rising it is 29 degree at 9pm

vishwas shinde said...

I think goa resive havey shower in coming days

Hrishikesh said...

what about mumbai?

rajesh said...

Seems as yet, does not reach till Mumbai as would weaken inland

prabhu archana said...

hi rejesh sir... we recieved a total of 2.7 inches rain in the last three days and its cluody with drizls today ... I have two questions that would be of a lot of help to people who iwn cardamom estates in idukki kerala... 1. whn can we expect the monsoon to start and the amount of rain we will get from the start ( just an approx amount would help)?
2. Can u help us in telling a date between 23 & 30 whn will there be a non rainy day?

thanx in advance sir...

Vijayanand said...

Cloudy day in bangalore. After long summer good to see cloudy sky. Rains are still elusive.

Rajesh Kumar said...

Bangalore was cloudy throughout day,now drizzling,Mausam was awesome today...like usual Bangalore weather..

Abhijit said...

It's May month but still Hot weather continues in N.Konkan !!

Some max temp from the region below for today dated (06-05-2014):


Thane IMD AWS max temp 38.2°C with min humidity of 48%
Thane Enviro AWS max temp 38.6°C with min humidity of 48%
Badlapur(private reading) max temp 39.2°C with min humidity of 28%
Karjat IMD AWS estimated max temp 41.0°C with min humidity of 28%
Bhira IMD max temp 42.0°C

Vinod said...

Rajesh sir,

Some Places in gujarat have got some rains in past couple of days. Even here in Patan(North Gujarat) it was cloudy in the evening but it didn't rain.
What could be the weather here for next 4-5 days ?

sset said...

Anyway low over Bay comes as big disappointment. Myself was expecting GUJARAT September 2013 rains 300-400mm in 24hrs for a week - this rain is required over TN -SE India to tide away extreme drought. BANG still no pre-monsoon rain. Rentachintala still 44deg.

rajesh said...

prabhu archana: I have given the SWm to start in Kerala by 31st May, around that date...initially as a routine there will be heavy thunder showers, and initial burst for the first 4/5 days in Kerala will give around 25-30 mms daily, with an occasional day of over 40 mms.
----------------------------------
Vagaries low was 28.6c on Wednesday morning

rajesh said...

vinod: no big difference in next 4 days for Gujarat...and your region got some localised clouding, but hot weather next days...some local clouding in spots on Saturday and Sunday in Saurashtra..

prabhu archana said...

thnx rajesh sir... will be prepared...