BB-1 tracked 110 kms West since last report, and is at 6N and 78E...at 1004 mb. ...more on Tuesday evening
Delhi NCR received thunder showers in some parts. S'jung measured 15 mms, result of moving M-1 as mentioned on Sunday. Should move away today and bring in the heat wave...
Posted Monday Night:
BB-1 has moved West, and stationed at 7N and 79E on Monday Night. Several parts of Southern TN and Kerala got showers. Thiruvananthpuram measured 29 mms till 8.30 pm IST on Monday.
Tracking N/NW from here. Under the influence of the upper winds at 500 mb levels.
heaviest rains expected in Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thuthukodi and Ramanathpuram regions of TN. Southern Kerala, upto Kochi may receive heavy showers.
Bangalore will be cloudy, and will get thunder showers from Tuesday, increasing from Wednesday. Around 40-50 mms between Wednesday and Thursday.
LWD will be shifting west. Off the coast, BB-1 will get embedded in the LWD trough, and may emerge in the Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast.
Heavy rains in Southern Interior Karnataka and coastal Karnataka from Tuesday evening.
System could slip inland into Karnataka again on Thursday, and could bring torrential rains to Interior Karnataka and Goa on Thursday.
Next Post Tuesday Evening
Posted on Sunday Evening:
1....A Low ( BB-1 or AS-1 ?) has formed just W/SW off Sri Lanka in the Gulf of Mannar. The Low, 1006 mb at sea level, extends up to 700 mb levels. This Low, is embedded in the "extended " LWD in the Central Peninsula regions.
Heavy rains, 30/40 mms, are expected on Monday and Tuesday in Southern TN regions of Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Ramnathpuram and Tuthukodi. Southern Kerala , including Thiruvananthpuram Kollam and Kochi ( 20-30 mms, and 50 mms in Western Ghats of Kerala) will get heavy thunder showers.
Now, seeing the synoptic situation and possibilities, we can first safely forecast the Low becoming Well Marked, and moving into the Arabian Sea by Tuesday.
Currently, dry air, associated with the High Pressure in the Arabian Sea, is blocking the passage into the Western Arabian Sea region.
The current flow of 700 mb level, that is the height of the Low, is driving it Westwards, but, on deepening, we may see the NE 200 hp stream dominating. But, the 100 mb stream, now at North blowing dirction, may influence the system to track Northwards.
After Tuesday 6th May, we may see the system moving N/NW, slightly off the coast, till Karnataka coast. Due to strong SW flow at 850 hp levels, it is possible that heavy rains , > 70 mms, will pour along the North Kerala and Karnataka coasts later in the week.
Goa may see rains by the weekend, maybe up to 50 mms in a day. We shall review this again.
The next stage will be followed, and the up date after 24 hours , Monday evening.
2...Existing LWD will continue to pour rains in interior Karnataka, particularly more in S.I.K.
UAC over W.Bengal has moved Eastwards, and lies over Bangladesh and adjoining Tripura. This region will get very heavy thunder showers on Monday.
3....M-1 , with an induced low, is moving Eastwards into Northern India. Precipitation is likely in Northern pakistan, North and NW India next 2 days.
After a partly cloudy afternoon, with dust storm/thunder shower in some parts, the NCR region starts heating up from Tuesday to target >44c again.
Kolkata, the UAC has moved away, so some chance of Thunder shower in vicinity on Monday...and the party ends from Tuesday !
Monday, cloudy and some rain spells in Islamabad, and getting hot Tuesday onwards as M-1 moves away.
Parts of Interior Sindh, including Nawabshah, may get the thunder shower on Monday. Very hot ( >46c) from Tuesday onwards.
Hot for Karachi, as the mercury targets 39c by Tuesday.
Tentaively, I may say, M-2 may arrive next Monday...
See Pradeep's Page for Latest Rain amounts from Storms in Bengal...This Page is updated daily !