Thursday, January 30, 2014

Posted Saturday Night:

If we continue from the Vagaries' Thursday forecast, F-1 has moved in, but not with the expected precipitation strength. This due to not having the required TPW available in spite of moderate clouding.
Very scarce rains/snow was reported as seen from the rain accumulation map.


On Sunday, F-1 moves Eastwards, and brings precipitation to Pakistan barring the SE Sindh region, which will be cloudy. 
Rain regions in India will be Kashmir, HP, Punjab and parts of Rajasthan. 

Rainfall increasing in frequency in Islamabad, with a sharp drop in day temperatures from current 23c to around 15/16c on Monday.

ROn Monday, the rainfall in a lighter form cover Haryana and Delhi NCR in some places.

Delhi NCR may get some light drizzles in some areas on Monday. Clearing by Monday night, and drop in Tuesday morning temperatures.


Mumbai will be around 32/33c on Sunday, with night at 21c. But, on Monday and Tuesday, we see North winds and day and night temperatures dipping by about 2/3c in the day and night. (Around 30c and 17/18c)


Be Sure to read a report on the El-Nino in tomorrow's Post here --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted on Friday Night:

The F-1 "wave" is showing consistency in strength, and is currently showing signs of bringing precipitation as far South as the 28N line...the UTH Image indicates the upper level strengthof the system, the sea level pressure indicates the tendency, and the 200 hp lines the upper trough...please judge the F-1 route and track now !!





Posted on Thursday Night:

F-1 moving into Pakistan as an upper air trough. With support at the 200 hp level, as the "wave" dips South, we see active precipitation commencing from Western Pakistan on 31st, probably developing from evening.The rainfall spreads Western, Central and North Pakistan on the 1st of February. Cloudy weather for Southern Pakistan (Karachi).

On the 2nd, WD moves East, and we see rains in Kashmir, HP , Punjab and North Rajasthan. Heavy precipitation continues in North Pakistan.

F-1 effect seen in Kashmir, HP besides  Punjab, Haryana,Delhi and Uttarakhand on 3rd of February.Very heavy rains on 3rd in Kashmir and Northern Hills. (Upto 60-70 mms)

Mumbai: Daytime winds will turn S/SE, so the humidity will rise as the days see around 32c...and some clouds from Saturday. After the 3rd,  I do see N/NE (cool) winds blowing into Mumbai after the F-1. Drop in temperatures after 3rd.
Pune, partly cloudy with initial rise in temperatures.

Report on El-Nino and its effect on the Summer will be published on Sunday Night :

7 comments:

rajesh said...

viveck o: Yes, there are some models showing an El-Nino. I shall be writing on the El-Nino effect on SWM (if any) on Sunday..shall publish by Sunday evening..

Prashant: Kumaon higher reaches (>8000 ft) will get snow fall, maybe around 15-20 cms, but depends a lot on the exact location..snow will be rare, but rains sure below 7000 feet..This will be on the 3rd of Feb

vinod: Patan will be sunny, and warm in the day with pleasant nights at 14c. After the 3rd of feb, we see North winds blowing, and temperatures getting colder, to around 11c.

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Very dense fog ( visibility below 50 m or even lower) engulfs NCR and many parts of north for last 2 days . Delhi has large max temp.diffrence with mangeshpur 15.7 degree while some parts over 22 degree

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Hence disappointing jan ends for new delhi , this jan after 10th min temp hardly fell below normal . Now New Delhi has to wait atleast 1 year for that magical figure of 0 degree celcius.

Abhijit said...

Konkan continues to be hot ! Some max temp below for today dated(31-01-2014):

Ratnagiri 35.0c
Mumbai (CLB) 34.7c
Panji,Goa 34.6c
Mumbai (SCZ) 34.4c
Dahanu 33.3c

Min(lowest) humidity of west coast for today :

Mumbai(SCZ) 17%
Surat 18%
Ratnagiri 19%

Abhijit said...

Whole West coast warmer ! Some max temp below for today (01-02-2014):

Ratnagiri 34.8c
Mumbai (SCZ) 34.7c
Kozhikode 34.7c
Mangalore 34.3c
Honavar 34.1c
Panji,Goa 34.0c
Thiruvananthapuram 34.0c
Surat 33.5c
Cochin 33.2c
Mumbai (CLB) 32.8c

Min(low)humidity of west coast for today :

Mumbai(SCZ) & Ratnagiri same 16%
Surat 22%

ANOOP RAWAT said...

All station in NCR showed significant fall in min. temp dispite of foggy morning . Pitampura going below 5 degree celcius .

Neeraj said...

Warm spell in Kathmandu. Cold in the towns in the southern plain - with daylong fog keeping the max around 15 C or so.

Prediction for coming days ? warmer or cooler ? Drier or wetter ?