Monday, January 13, 2014

Outlook for Mumbai from 14th January :

14th January, Sankrant, and we need good winds for kite flying. So, late morning/afternoon will see NW winds at 15 kmph, and turning to winds from the North and around 15 kmph, but getting calm late evening/night. Temperature around 28/29c and morning will be around 18/19c at Scruz and 20/21c at Colaba.
Similar weather for Wednesday, brisk breeze, days around 29c.
Thursday 16th evening will be windy with WNW winds, and moist winds bringing in dew and some clouding in the night.
Friday morning will be foggy in the outer areas, with low around 16/17c in the suburbs. Windy in the day, with a high at 28c.
Friday partly cloudy specially in the outer regions.

A WD, is expected to cross the Himalayan States on the 16th and 17th. This WD will have a southerly trough in the plains. The trough slanting towards the SE (from NW), with an induced low around Northern MP/Adjoining UP, will have a favourable upper SW winds in the Southern and SE segment.
Rainfall is likely in MP, adjoining North Mah, and adjoining Western Up on 17th jan. 
Delhi NCR will be cloudy on 16th and with precipitation in some areas on 17th. 

Northern regions of Pakistan get rain/snow from the system, but rest of Pakistan remains dry, as the induced ( upper) low forms over India, and contributes most of the rain in the East of the WD.
Karachi will be dry, and between 25 and 11c...Thursday will be very windy, with gusty NE winds blowing.
Kathmandu may finally see its January dry spell broken..Rainfall expected in Kathmandu from the system on the 18th and 19th.
Due to J-3 pushing Eastwards, Heavy Rains expected in Dubai on Saturday 18th.

I will be away on a Desert Wildlife trip to the Rann of Kutch from 14th January for 5 days. The above forecast is based on logs and assumption of Tuesday's synoptic situation. Could have slight variations in strength and a day here and there.

But Abhijit and Arpit will be keeping Vagaries "alive" with their write ups on the Maharashtra and Northern situations.

8 comments:

Neeraj said...

Pls give forecast for rest of the regions too.

Abhijit said...

Mumbai pleasent with west breeze. so Max temp for today : Colaba 26.5c, S'cruz 27.5c

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Last year due to high level day fog many cities in NW india recorded single digit max temp .New delhi recorded 9.8 degree celcius on 2 nd jan 2013 .But as cimpare to last year this year New delhi havng a mild winter . As per my information lowest max temp in new delhi this season is 15.9 degree celcius lowest min 2.4 degree celcius both in Dec 2013 and i don't thunk any city in plains recorded single digit max temp this season .So can say last winter was much colder than this one

rajesh said...

Anoop: For last years Low day temps see
http://vagariesmum.blogspot.in/

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Warm and very hazy afternoon in Faridabad .MAX may be around 23-24 degree celcius

Arpit Sharma said...

This season only Jammu city recorded max in single digits i.e. 8.6c.
Moderate rainfall likely in Delhi-NCR from 17th evening to 18th morning...

ANOOP RAWAT said...

Arpit sir , any chance of hailstorm.

Arpit Sharma said...

Anoop: yeah good chances of hailstorm...