BB-11 has moved due West towards Jharkhand and weakened to 1002 mb. The UAC associated with it is towards the SW, and corresponding precipitation in the W/SW of UAC region in East MP, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh and East Vidharbh.
Parts of South Bengal and Orissa got good rainfall.
Kolkata and Southern W.Bengal got good rains as predicted. Prominent rains in mms:
Mainaguri ARG 115, NH31 Bridge 98, Numaligarh 94, Goalpara CWC 89, Nalbari (Barkhetri AWS) & Sevoke 86 each, Sagar Island AWS 84, Itanagar 78, Kolkata AP 71,
Even our "spot" city forecast on Hardoi was good with 70 mms, Bareilly 12 mms.. Other nearby places got :Domeriaganj 124, Bansi CWC 118.
As the system moves West, the trough along the East coast shifts a bit and slants NW/SE. Precipitation increases in Vidarbha and MP. Rains increase in interior TN today, and Chennai gets Thunder showers by tomorrow as predicted.
Follow Up Post..Posted on Tuesday Night...
UAC has descended as a sea level Low , BB-11, and as on Tuesday evening is centred over Southern Bengal. Associated UAC still hovers in the Orissa area.
The axis lies in the Himalayan foothills, and further the axis runs East towards another low off Vietnam coast.
Timelapse: Noctilucent Clouds and Aurora Together in the Sky..see Video on Space News Page (Recommended not to miss)
Follow Up Post..Posted on Tuesday Afternoon:
The Monsoon Axis is pushed itself into the Himalayan Foothills, and runs thru UP and the Bay UAC into the Bay waters.Western End of axis at 998 mb, but weakening to 1000 mb and shifting South (through enlarging in area) by Wednesday..
As anticipated, a UAC has embedded itself in the axis over UP. Resultant clouding in UP is seen. Vagaries forecast (Sunday blog) mentions of rains from this UAC in Central UP and adjoining Nepal for Tuesday.
Hoping for Kolkata and Central UP rains today..
Anticipating a rain revival to some extent from Friday for Mumbai, as (hopefully) UAC from Bay moves W/NW....
Follow Up Post..Posted on Monday Night:
UAC moves West from Myanmar Coast , and is Located in th North Bay South of the Ganges Delta region.
The embedded UAC in the monsoon axis has formed in Eastern UP region, and the precipitation expected in the above region in Vagaries Tuesday Forecast Map, may occur as shown. Region and city specific mentioned yesterday.
Absolute moderate to light rains in Mah today (Monday)...till 5.30 pm...In ghats Mshwar got 17 mms and Bhira 13 mms,, and then not much...Scruz 4 mms, Colaba 3 mms, vagaries 3 mms, Solopur 3 ,mms, Pune 0.1 mms.
Rain concentrated in Southern Bengal with Kolkata getting 29 mms, and adjoining Jamshedpur and Ranchi 20 mms...now lets see on Tuesday, if the rains turn towards West ...
Posted on Sunday evening::
Forecast for next week put up...BB-11 and SWM Withdrawal
BB-10 has become an UAC over the MP/Gujarat border. Its clouding has "bloated'' And spread out over a larger area over North Mah and adjoining MP and Gujarat. But, precipitation is low, hence not much was expected from this.
We trace our current blog back to the article of 20th August:
Repeat Post:"Storm "Trami" in the Pacific is now at 970 hpa strength, and just North of Taiwan. It has produced a strong trough in a SW direction, and has an embedded Low "pulse" at 998 mb and 107E and 20N, off Northern Vietnam Coast.. Keeping a track on this as it moves Westwards along the axis."
Yes, and move Westwards it did ! The pulse has entered the Bay, and on Sunday evening positoned off the Myanmar coast at 20N as an UAC at 700 hpa.
See detailed Daily Forecast Narration Below Maps:
Monday 26th, we can track the UAC to strengthen, and cover a larger region in the Nort/West Bay. Normally, the rainfall associated with this UAC will be restricted to the Sea areas on Monday.
Showers in East Vidarbh and Chattisgarh possible on Monday night.
Tuesday 27th, the system descends, and at 850 hpa, would be centred off the Orissa coast. Clouding due to the system would cover coastal regions of Orissa and W.Bengal. Precipitation likely in all districts of Orissa.
Some heavy falls extend into Nepal, and Kathmandu can get thunder showers on Tuesday evening/night.
Some stray extension into NW Uttar Pradesh possible with showers in the Shahbad, Hardoi and Bareilly cicle. Meerut and othe Northern regions of UP can get showers also.
Wednesday 28th: System may descend, and form a low at sea level (BB-11). The precipitation from the system may be concentrated in the W and SW quadrants, as the isobars in that quadrant will be spaced closely, and get bring windy conditions .
Heavy rainfall is likely in Chattisgarh, and adjoining Vidarbh.
Heavy falls likely in Districts of Nagpur, Wardha, Amravati and Gondia. In Chattisgarh, Raipur region can get heavy rainfall.
City to watch for heavy rainfall: Gondia and Raipur.
Local Thunderstorms occur in interior TN.
Thursday 29th: System moves West/North-West and lingers over the MP area.
Overnight rainfall mentioned for Wednesday, spills over into Thursday also. A rain patch may bring showers on the East coast from Vijaywada to Chennai in the South.
South West Monsoon Possibily Withdraws from Western Pakistan by Thursday 29th.
Balochistan and Parts of Interior Sindh remain hot at 43/44c. Karachi may expect an odd day of light drizzles till Thursday.
Friday 30th: As the system weakens, and moves west.
The heavy rainfall likely in the South MP and North Mah. region (Between Seoni and Jalgoan regions).,,details later.
Mumbai: Monday thru Thursday: Partly cloudy. Subdued rainfall with 2/3 passing showers, that too in some parts. Daily rainfall 7-10 mms. Warming up to 30/31c.
Delhi NCR: Partly cloudy. Thunder Showers likely in region on Tuesday. Otherwise some localised rain in scaterred areas.
Chennai: Partly cloudy to suny. Can expect thunder shower on Thursday. Otherwise warm at 35/36c.
Nagpur: Heavy rains can be expected on Wednesday thru Thursday. Rainfall may amount to around 65-75 mms between 2 days
Pune: Nothing to cheer , with Cloudy and no meaningful rains till Thursday. Around 3-5 mm/day.
Surat too will have very little rainfall till Thursday. For after Thursday, we see the system strength in the next few days.
Light rains in interior Mah and Konkan Sunday...i mention this even though the clouding seemed heavy, the actual precipitation was very less...almost averaging between 5-8 mms....
Mumbai Rains almost near our predicted range (upto 7 mms)...Colaba 18.8 mms, Scruz 7 mms...average 13 mms.
.Aurangabad and Washim amongst the higher at 8 mms. Mshwar at 14 mms.
Heat Wave Next Week..Heading for Iowa (US)..could be Hottest This Year