Saturday, February 02, 2013

See evening post of Actual report of Saturday posted ....also Tuesday's forecast finalised..all below in this article against date 2nd Feb...also see Inter Active Page for Sunday pics

Vagaries is putting up its forecast for the next 4 days for Mumbai City..Mumbai Page

January 2013: City wise actual Temperature anomalies and departure..and February Outlook put up on "Current Weather Page"...

Posted on 31st Jan :
1st Feb, Friday: Forecast remains almost same, Isolated rains in Nepal. Kathmandu will be cloudy with light rainfall.

F-1 moves into Pakistan. Western regions of Pakistan start getting rain/snow.
Some rains in Central regions of Sindh. Precipitation commences over Kashmir region.
Some light rains in Sunderbans area of Bangladesh and adjoining coastal W.Bengal in the evening. Kolkata gets cloudy to some extent also.

Actual Report of Friday 1st Feb:
The main "low" region is still In Eastern Iran, the trough extends Southwards into Western Pakistan region as on Friday evening. 
F-1 has moved into Western Pakistan, and has started precipitating rain/snow, though light till Friday evening. 
Quetta is drizzling in the evening, with gusty winds at 30-40 kmph.
Dal Bandin in Western Balochistan has been recieving light rains since evening. Central Sindh regions are also reporting light rains and overcast conditions on Friday evening, and Hyderabad is overcast.

Moving into India by Saturday...
Nepal was dry today, with Kathmandu showing a max of 25.5c..though i would put some cahnces of light rain there tomorrow afternoon.
And Cloudy weather as predicted for Kolkata...rain accumulation maps show light drizzles in South Bangladesh (coastal) regions...

(Original Forecast)2nd Feb, Saturday: F-1 schedule has been delayed by a day. F-1, the system will not move into the Northern India hill states as expected..but, will cover most Pakistan regions, Central and coastal Pakistan. The coastal Sindh region and Karachi may get rain as the F-1 starts precipitating in the region. 

Actual Report:
On Schedule. Many places in Pakistan received the F-1 rains on Saturday. While rains were recorded from Parachinar, Quetta, Dal Bandin and Islamabad, rains are moving eastwards along the Sindh coast. Karachi shouls see light showers on Saturday night...

Sunday shown below: though there is a "defiant" high pressure at 850 mb over Northern India. A very favourable 500 mb wind flow may help. i do not think it should create any hindrance to F-1 for moving into India on Sunday/Monday...F-1 moving into NW India and the hill States...with clouds in Delhi with light rain chances in some parts at night...



3rd Feb Sunday: The system now moves thru entire Pakistan and into NW India. F-1 moves into plains of Pakistan and Indian Punjab, Haryana and cloudy over Delhi NCR. Light rains over Delhi NCR on Sunday night, with SE winds gaining speed..

Windy day for Nagpur as Southerly winds gain speed, and show a rise in temperatures.

4th Feb Monday: No weakening for the system on Monday, as the trough deepens, maybe with an induced low over Rajasthan, the system gains strength, and Monday sees precipitation all over Northern Pakistan, with heavy falls of 40-50 mms around Lahore and surrounding Punjab. 

Cloudy and windy (SE) day for Delhi NCR, with frequent showers in most regions.(city rainfall 5-10 mms upto Tuesday morning)

Rains will be occuring in Kashmir, HP, plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi NCR on Monday. If the induced low is formed, South Rajasthan along with Saurashtra, North Gujarat and Kutch too will get rains from Monday evening.
Mumbai foggy and low visibility in the morning.


5th Feb,Tuesday: In effect, the would be F-2 trough merges, the trough strengthens with the induced low. Result could be heavier thunder rains in North India, i.e. Kashmir, HP, Utterakhand, Punjab,Haryana, UP, Rajasthan and Delhi NCR on Tuesday. 

Again Tuesday for Delhi will be completely overcast and cool with thundershowers. City rainfall upto Wed morning 20-25 mms.

The shifting of cloud line along the SW/NE line will shift the rains to South Gujarat also. Saurashtra gets clear, but rains thru S.Gujarat/MP and UP line.

Mumbai foggy and misty in the morning.



6 comments:

Tyrone said...

Rajesh, will it still precipitate in coastal sindh and khi?

sset said...

Rajesh and SamKhan are with correct forcast - on target!!! WD are impacting NW India.

Are WD cause for failure of NE monsoons over SE India???? Seems Raj/Kutch/Guj are having glory days with rains and aridity shifting to south India.

sset said...

Mumbai is having best weather ever seen as suggested by many readers. Very pleasent no fan required- spring conditions - new leaves are appearing over trees, recent botonical exibition (sponsered by NMMT, Godrej, Reliance) brought about best flowers, fruits of Muumbai trees.

sam khan said...

there will be rise in mumbai night temperature accompanied by showers , monday evening or tuesday coming week, hope we receive some hails.

sam khan said...

I APPRECIATE RAJESH sir views, but i strongly feel there r high chances of showers in mumbai, coming week.

rajesh said...

sam khan..yes, i saw your views of Mumbai rains on coming Monday and Tuesday, 4th and 5th Feb ..in this coloumn...:-)