Saturday, February 16, 2013

Sunday 17th February Forecast


10 comments:

rajesh said...

Pradeep: Thanks Pradeep for the rare compliment :-)(reply to previous comment)

Neeraj said...

Raining cats&dogs here at the moment. Tomorrow some rain predicted (by mr. rajesh & and our met dept and almost all intl models).

Rajesh sir, so what would be the effect of this rain here ? It has been pretty dry and has made feb feel more like march or april. anything would change now ? or remain the same.

and finally, next rain prediction. maybe next sat-sunday.. or is it too early to predict.

rajesh said...

Neeraj: Yes, was expecting the night rains as put up in the map...rains for a day more for Kathmandu. That is a shower on Sunday evening. clearing from Monday,and a drop in night temps...but Feb rain should be normal, with 8 mms overnight...and more later.

Chennai has responded well to the forecast, which was 7-10 mms /day. The city got 6 mms on Friday and 7 mms on Saturday.
Surat dropped Sunday morning to 16c (16c) and Mumbai saw 15.7c (16c). Delhi, got rains less than anticipated, as the low sort of "by passed" the capital. Vagaries estimate of 2 days rain (40-45 mms) fell short, as the 2 day total managed was 26 mms.
Pune was woefully below the estimate (14c) with 10.4c) on Sunday morning.
Lucknow saw overnight 8 mms and Allahbad 18 mms. Kathmandu received 8 mms (good for the place as Feb month normal is 19 mms).
In Sindh, Karachi fell 1 c to 13.5c, Hyderabad fell 3 notches to 9c, and Sukkur 2 notches to 10.5c.

Neeraj said...

In fact we got 31 mms of rain. highest 24 hr total for feb as per our met dept.

Saurabh Surendra Dwivedi said...

@Rajesh

For the last few nights, as per IMD the lowest minimum is being recorded by Ballia, UP. Last night as per IMD Ballia recored 5.5 .

I wonder who reviews the reports that IMD puts out. For the last few days the entire north is getting rains and recording below normal maximum temperatures and above normal minimum temperatures. Ballia AWS is reporting minimum of 15 for the last few days.

My guess, IMD for this town is using January temperatures for the same day.

rajesh said...

Neeraj: so heavy rain was really heavy..for 31.4 mms..i too noticed that it is the highest Feb 24 hrs for Kathmandu ever...and another 23.6 mms today !
Saurabh: your observation is correct..i'll try to check and see what the fact is..

Viravanalluran said...

Refer Ballia minimum temperature.

[1] Perhaps a break in minimum temperature thermometer i.e Faulty thermometer.

[2] Usually minimum temperature is read from the position of the end of the dumb bell shaped index further from the bulb. some body might have read it the other way. Even then also some five degree variation will be there but NOT this much.

Atul Naik said...

Drop in min temp by 4 C for Feb 18 over Feb 17 at 1:00 UTC, as recorded by IMD AWS for Panaji. Chilly winds in the morning today. Change in sultry weather after nearly a month. Effect of N winds?

Saurabh Surendra Dwivedi said...

@Viravanalluran
This is happening for the last few days.

Your second explanation reminds me of the most famous mistake of this type, Aziziya held the record for the highest temperature ever recorded(57.8), turns out it was because the reading was taken from the wrong end of the indicator.

rajesh said...

Viravanalluran and Saurabh: Surely some mistake somewhere. Difficult to judge , but could be the reasoning you gave as it has happened somewhere before..and the nearby reading of town do not match at all. Cloudy period readings should be more.

Atul: The cold spell has been avoiding the region South off Goa for the last 1 mont, explained in previous article on vagaries. Now at last should catch up on cooler weather.Yes, N wids now blowing into the region.
Expecting a Low around Goa on 20/21..will keep readers informed. sahll put up soon.