We can almost continue from the forecast of our previous post.
It can be mentioned that things and sequence have almost fallen in place till Monday..Record rains for Nasik getting 37.2 mms in 24 hrs ended Tuesday morning, the highest ever for a February day.. beating the previous 16.5 of 1968 by more than double. Rest of N. Maharashtra got rains with Jalgoan 21 mms.
Parts of Mumbai got traces of rain on Monday night, and the Mumbai -Pune belt recieved showers in various places...rainfall is mentioned by readers in the comments of the previous article..
However on Tuesday, the weak low which was east of Mumbai, moved NE into MP and onwards towards UP (expected movement was to the North)..spreading clouds and meagre precipitation into rest of MP and UP. It would be correct to say it has very tactfully avoided Delhi !
It has "flattened" out into a "mini trough" at 25N (MP/UP)
The trough, roughly along or just below 25N next day, forms a weak low in South Rajasthan and MP border on the Thursday 14th. On Friday 15th, the low should move North into North Rajasthan.
Forecast for 13th Wednesday/ 14thThursday and 15th Friday:
Wednesday 13th, there will be very little rains in S.Rajasthan, around Ajmer and Kota. Adjoining Guna might get some light drizzles..
Some medium heavy spells could be expected in South TN, that is Kanyakumari region and Southern districts of TN.
Thursday 14th, rainfall from this trough spreads into adjoining Central MP/Rajasthan and a heavy rain pocket in the Agra/Gwalior region.
Easterly wave moves inland and light precipitation spreads into interior TN and S.I. Karnataka (including Bangalore).
Now, we move to and follow F-2. Like last Friday's mention, seems to be on the same date schedule, 14th Feb. F-2 moves into Northern Pakistan, so precipitation commences in Balochistan region extending into the Punjab (Pakistan)areas.
Light rains in Islamabad in the evening.
Friday 15th: The low moves into North Rajasthan and adjoining areas. Heavier rainfall in the Delhi NCR region. Heavy showers possible East of Delhi in the Western UP region also. Precipitation can be expected in Vidharbha and Nagpur may get showers.
Precipitation continues in S.I. Karnataka and parts of TN.
A sharp vertical Southerly wind current will stretch the rainfall from Lucknow southwards thru Vid into thru Hyderabad into Interior Karnataka.
F-2 moves into Central Sindh, though light showers there, and also in Kashmir and HP. Light to medium precipitation from F-2 in these regions.
Rain in Islamabad.
13th/14th: Partly cloudy getting Clear. With the warm day on Wednesday (34c) relenting to 32c on Thursday. Nights around 20c.
15th Friday: NW winds resume, and bring the temperatures back to the low 29/30. Nights dropping by 2/3c to 18c.
Wednesday will be sunny, but Thursday will be warm at, maybe around 26c.
Friday 15th: Cloudy and rain showers from afternoon, with thunder. Strong SE winds in the day. Upto 15-20 mms expected till Saturday morning.
Rains continue into Saturday..forecast will be issued soon..Saturday day getting another 25 mms...
Surat remains warm till Thursday due to the impending low disturbing the wind pattern. Dropping day temperatures by 2/3c from Friday.
Chennai cloudy on all days, can expect light showers on Friday, say 3-5 mms.
Precipitation effect from this syetm moving into Central Nepal. Kathmandu can get showers on Friday. Will cool down by 2/3c to around 19/20c in the day, from Friday.
Karachi remains warm till Thursday, around 31c and 16c, but getting cooler and partly cloudy from Friday by 2/3c..
Picture of 1st Vagaries Meeting at Phoenix Mills Mall on 12th February 2013..