Tuesday, February 19, 2013

19th and 20th..the 2 dry days forecasted shown in the rain accumulation image below..Now, as per estimate...F-3 moves into India on Thursday 21st...





and F-3 has now moved and taken over......



Seems the Low** (the low referred see below in yesterday's article) in the Arabian Sea off the Kerala/Karnataka coast  has also moved NE inland. Estimated to move N/NE from 20th..(it is a day earlier than what was said in yesterday's article)...
Forecast same as given below...F-3 over Pakistan on 21st, 22nd over India and 23rd precipitation for Delhi NCR..city forecast as below...

Southern TN , mainly the Coimbatore District, got torrential rains on Monday night. Periyanaickenpalayam got 110 mms, Annur 80 mms.
A 24 hr record breaking 98.5 mms was measured in Coimbatore AP, its highest for a 24 hr period in February, beating the previous record of 61.4 mms of 25th Feb 2000. 

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Published on Monday Night 12 mid Night:
Weather Now :
Now, with another WD on its way, this month too seems wet and cold. 
The next in line ,F-3, would reach and precipitate over Northern Pakistan and Central Sindh on 21st of Feb On 21st, Karachi will be cloudy, and rains expected in Southern Sindh region. 
19th and 20th would be almost dry for India, 21st, precipitation over the Kashmir and West Raj would resume , though light.

By 22nd, F-3 would be over India, initially covering Kashmir, HP, Punjab and Haryana. A East -West trough along the 20N line, could create some convection in the Vidharbha region on 22nd. 
**A low could possibly form on the North Karnataka/Goa coast on the 20th. This would move a bit inland, and get embedded in the trough.

By 23rd, precipitation would be covering Delhi NCR.

Mumbai starts heating up from Tuesday 19th, peaking on Thursday at 35c. 
Friday 22nd will be cloudy and a few degrees lower. Cloudy weather for Pune/Nasik and Aurangabad on Friday 22nd. 

Outer townships of Mumbai will be gettng warmer, and may reach 35c or 36c by Thursday, as SE winds take over. Partly cloudy towards the hills will ease the temps on Friday...nights will also rise gradually from Tuesday morning...finally touching 18c...by Friday

Surat, dry and heating up to 36c next few days. cooling a bit from Friday.

Next few days till Friday, Kolkata remains in the 26-15c range, with light clouds till Wednesday.
Dry for Kathmandu now, with day temperature around 22c and nights around 5c.

A Report:
January 2013, which saw 5 Western Disturbances and a severe on amonst them. Would be considered a bit above normal, considering the fact that Northern Sub-Continent region normally gets 3/4 WDs in the month.

And the WDs continued in February. F-1 ,an intense system ravaged thru Pakistan in perticular wher the 2 days accumulated rainfall was more than 200 mms in the North and NW. In India too, it was intense, with several day and month records reached or broken in rainfall and snowfall. Delhi getting 46 mms in a day !
Vagaries has mentioned some details and references to this F-1 here...

In such cases, It is found that there is sharp increase in the convergence flux of kinetic energy and weak adiabatic generation of kinetic energy over the troposphere. The vertically integrated generation of kinetic energy shows destruction in the proximity of the center of low pressure area and generation take place west of it in the intense 
western disturbance.



 See the % of normal rainfall path", along the WD route..almost...



The accumulated rains chart for the sub continent for January shows the regions having received more than 200 mms, and the anomaly chart is also clear in its depiction.

2 comments:

Atul Naik said...

In the Flash Update posted above, the web link for 00UTC is broken and not working....

rajesh said...

Reports of evening rains have come in fro Sindh region..sent by MN Chaudhary