Saturday, April 01, 2023

Short term Weather Extremes are over reaction, no Panic..Nature will balance the situation 

Let us first clear the "fear" that after a hot February 2023, and a hot begining to March, the Indian region is in for " surviving challenging heat" ahead.

Predictions about temperatures in 44-46°C range during peak summer is common for certain areas of the country, and is experienced almost every year. The typical summer heat of the subcontinent is definitely harsh, but has not been "survival challenging"

The first two weeks of

March 2023 were no doubt among the hottest on

record. But, drastically, the

second half, was among the top 10 coldest March in the past 73 years.

The average maximum for India up to March 29 is 30.35°c, according to IMD

This works out to 0.96° below the 1981-2010 average for this interval, and the 12th coolest since 1951.

Contrast with the maximum readings in February, which was the 13th warmest since 1951

To be sure, the first half of the month was above normal. .  All days except March 7 were warmer than normal from March 1 to March 15.
But From March 16 onward, every day has been at least 1.3° cooler than normal. 
On average, the weeks ending March 21 and March 28 were 3.5° and 2.3° cooler than normal. . 

The average temperature during the week ending March 21, 28.44° was slightly lower than even the average for Februar (28.46 degrees
(Excerpts from IMD &HT)

The sudden cold in the latter half  of March was caused by  two active western disturbances, cyclonic circulations over Rajasthan and moisture from Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea due to anti-cyclonic circulation there , jet streams with  speed 150-180 kilometres per hour  in the upper troposphere,  resulting in sustained rainfall and thunderstorm, often accompanied with hailstorm.

(Courtesy HT)

Will this cooling end with March?
IMD’s forecast for the next two weeks says that most of the country is going to be cooler than normal up to mid-April, with little warming even in the period after.
Let's  see the effect on the SWM. 😕

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