Thursday, April 27, 2023

Monsoon Watch - 3..2023...28th April

Current Scenario of Developing Parameters:

1. 

Indicator: Eastern Bay Branch -ve

2. Core Pressure of Seasonal Low persisting at 1004 hpa...( For similar comparisons of some previous years:1004hpa in 2014, 1000hpa in 2015, 1002 hpa in 2016 on same end April dates.)


3.The NW plains heating picked up initially, but stabilised again, as WDs started streaming in.

After the early summer onslaught, the heat steadied a bit over the North and west subcontinent between MW-2 and MW-3 period. Central India became near normal/below normal (No heat wave)

Indicator: -ve

4.Jet Streams (Most Important)

The 200 hpa Jet streams over the subcontinent is the additional parameter to be watched from MW-3 onwards .

The jet streams are to be followed as the westerly jet 

core shifts to the 

north and easterly jet 

stream is formed, over the course of late summer, 
progressively 

from south to north of 

the subcontinent , 

heralding the 

progress of south-


west monsoon over 


the subcontinent.


Currently not 

organised ...need to become Easterlies.

They are required to strengthen to 

easterlies at 95E 

latitudes in the 

coming days, for 

heralding the SWM to 

the South Andaman Sea.
Indicator :-ve

Note:

The South-West Indian Monsoon Season may be delayed in the Andaman Islands arrival by a few days i.e around 18th May. 

But the Arabian Sea Branch seems to show and indicate a delay of around 3/4 days i.e. Arrival at Kerala by around 3rd-5th June.

Vagaries' would estimate a near normal monsoon overall (97%-100%). The quantum and strength may lag in the second half of the season

IMD has estimated this years Monsoon quantum at around 96% +- 5% of the normal. That would mean in normal range.
Other competent Forecasters have indicated a weaker Monsoon
.

*But, situations can change fast, and by the time we discuss the next  MW, some factors can suddenly become +ve or -ve. So, MW discusses and follows the developments as they emerge, and discuss the parameters as is where are.


Monsoon Watch is reflecting Vagaries' views..Monsoon Watch should not be used/depended upon commercially or otherwise. Monsoon Watch Series may differ from other models.
.

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