Monday, April 10, 2023

Monsoon Watch - 1 2023....10th April 2023

A different March Scenario this year...so, we cannot go to the stereo type of "Watch" this year..

South West Monsoon Watch Series this year will vary as  as the March Weather was a bit extreme..Early readings for Monsoon Forecast: 

The first two weeks of March 2023 were no doubt among the hottest on record. But, drastically, the second half, was among the top 10 coldest March in the past 73 years.



To be sure, the first half of the month was above normal. .  All 

days except March 7 were warmer than normal from March 1 

to March 15.

But From March 16 onward, every day has been at least 1.3° cooler than normal. 
On average, the weeks ending March 21 and March 28 were 3.5° and 2.3° cooler than normal. . 

The average temperature during the week ending March 21, 28.44° was slightly lower than even the average for February (28.46 degrees
(Excerpts from IMD &HT)





The sudden cold in the latter half  of March was caused by  two active western disturbances, cyclonic circulations over Rajasthan and moisture from Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea due to anti-cyclonic circulation there , jet streams with  speed 150-180 kilometres per hour  in the upper troposphere,  resulting in sustained rainfall and thunderstorm, often accompanied with hailstorm.
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Current Scenario:

*ENSO-neutral conditions are observed.

* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average across most of the Pacific Ocean. 

*The tropical Pacific atmosphere is still consistent with a weak La Niña signal. 

*ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the April/May/June and June 2023.



Standard Winds Scenario for SWM...Compiled by Vagaries
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Soon, we will give the Monsoon Estimate....As of now seems Late...!

Next Monsoon Watch-(2) on 20th April





1 comment:

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit Australian government Bureau of metereology

Issued Tuesday 11 April 2023



The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on our website.

El Niño WATCH continues

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño). However, the ENSO Outlook is at El Niño WATCH.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. A positive IOD event may develop in the coming months. A positive IOD can supress winter and spring rainfall over much of Australia.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently strengthened and moved into the Western Pacific region. MJO pulse is forecast to move into the central and eastern Pacific regions in the coming fortnight, when its influence on rainfall across northern Australia and the Southwest Pacific weakens.
ENSO Outlook

Our ENSO Outlook provides

up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.




Current status: EL NIÑO WATCH

More information

Media liaison (03) 9669 4057
Technical enquiries helpdesk.climate@bom.gov.au

Next update expected by 25 April 2023



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