Friday, April 21, 2023

Monsoon Watch -2 ...2023....21st April.

1.Mascrene Highs...Formations below the Normal requirement.

Indicator: Negative

2. Seasonal Pre Monsoon Heat...well, aware there is complaint of "Heat" (though no heat wave seen), but observe the real scene.

The squares show the "below normal" anomaly. The Monsoon parameters see this....reality

Indiacator: Negative

3. Seasonal Low

Core between 1002/1004 hPa..Fairly good..As mentioned, by end May/early June it normally should reach a low nadir of 994 mb in June in the Thar Desert, and with 1008mb in the South Arabian Sea, a perfect gradient is created to attract the south -west winds towards the coast.

Indictor: Good.

4. The Line of Wind Discontinuity in Peninsula India, should normally stabilise around Central India perpendicular down into the Southern Peninsula by mid April. 
But this year it has been active first half of April, and fizzling out now.

Indicator: Weak.

5. ENSO;
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral, and with signs of El Niño forming after July.
But El Nino is not the only parameter fir estimating our Monsoon.

Indicator: Neutral.( Would maintain this position).

6. Bay Low:
The Bay has yet to host a pre monsoon low during  April. 
As discussed, we should normally see a low sometime after the 15th of April. 
Another factor, which helps the winds gain strength, and bring more moisture into the Indian landmass, is the sea temperatures on both sides of the Peninsula. 
Needs to warm up more..👇
No Low seen till April End.
Indicator: Negative

Overall Summary:2 Parameters Weak/Neutral...3 Negative.
Seems (without commitment today)..SWM onset could be delayed...

But, situations can change fast, and by the time we discuss the next MW, some factors can suddenly become +ve or -ve. So, MW discusses and follows the developments as they emerge, and discuss the parameters as is where is. 

No model can commit  today when the Monsoon can arrive. 

Also, Quantum of rain forecasting in April for June right through September is an impossible task. Things get clearer by last week of April. 
Vagaries' (in MW) normally remains true to estimates around early May. 

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