Sunday, December 08, 2019

Posted Sunday 8th Evening;

A Western Disturbance (WD) is approaching the Indian Sub Continent from the West. 
It is likely to be over North Pakistan on the 9th/10th. of December. With the formation of an induced Low over West Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan, it may be possible that the whole of Pakistan may be covered with clouds and precipitation on the 11th/12th.
Karachi may get some rains and Thunder shower on 11th and 12th.Though light to moderate.

Northern hills regions of India, that is, Kashmir, H.P, and Uttarkhand will get a good sprinkling of snow on 12th.
With the induced low moving E/NE, the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, North M.P. and U.P. will get rains and thundershowers on 12th/13th.. 
Cold Day conditions will prevail over the entire Northern region with the advance of WD. Delhi dropping to below 20c in the day on 13th.

The regions of  M.P, Gujarat and Maharastra will witness cold N/NW winds from the 12th, with fall in temperatures. 
Also, South Gujarat Coastal areas will see a drop in temperatures.

Maharashtra, which has yet to get the real winter feel till today, will see a change of winds from the 12th. As is commonly rumored, with so much rain till late November, with almost a 5 month rainy season, why is is it not getting cold ? Well,it is the lack of proper "winterly" North winds.
With various system in the Arabian Sea bringing in rains and moisture into the regions, we had no proper push from the breezy North. In fact, all winds were headed from the East to the West, blowing off the Land along the West coast (Mumbai).This kept the temperatures high. Dry air from the North was not able to penetrate South of Gujarat.
Mumbai constantly saw temperatures along the 33-35c range thru November till today. Many All Time Records (High) were achieved in November along the West coast as a result. And today (8th Dec), Penambur touched its ATR for December also by recording 37.5c.

Now, from 11th ..for almost a week, the WD trough will dip south with the induced Low, and with cold dry N/NW winds, lower the Mumbai and the entire regional temperatures of Gujarat/ Maharashtra and M.P.

After 12th Mumbai will drop to 30c in the day and around 17/19c at night. Pune/Nasik/Aurangabad will see a fall to 27c - 10/11c. 
These 3 and many other Maharashtra cities had the warmest November in a decade.

A fresh Low Pressure has formed in the South Arabian Sea at 9N and 62 E . This , AS-7, has concentrated into a Depression and likely to Concentrate more next 24 hrs. Track will be W/NW, away from the Indian Coast.

Muscat had sporadic showers on Sunday. The max in the day was 23c and about 5/6 mms of rain.
Rains will decrease from Monday.
U.A.E. expected to get showers on Monday/Tuesday.


shiekhz said...

Anything for karachi from this wd sir?

Unknown said...

We are waiting for few heavy spells in Abu Dhabi.
This time we need it.
Indeed mountain region in North uae is getting frequent showers.
Any chance on Wednesday?

Rajesh said...

Chances good of rain in Abu Dhabi from Monday thru Wednesday...More increase on Tuesday /Wednesday...but few heavy spells in pockets

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