tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post6622428087407778676..comments2024-03-28T22:32:17.248+05:30Comments on Vagaries of the Weather ©: Rajeshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-34561088731263549582018-09-26T12:14:44.382+05:302018-09-26T12:14:44.382+05:30Sawan: I assure you Vagaries team will be active.....Sawan: I assure you Vagaries team will be active...dull periods in most of India dissappointed us in September. Thanks.Rajeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511057956916968156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-17049510337538370252018-09-25T21:27:20.266+05:302018-09-25T21:27:20.266+05:30Why this year very few weather update by vagaries ...Why this year very few weather update by vagaries team ? Only few rain or weather prediction for India this year by vagaries.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10565181852556235015noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-62966503254397106052018-09-25T18:53:04.897+05:302018-09-25T18:53:04.897+05:30https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics...https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/i-never-compete-with-imd-they-are-my-mentors-weather-enthusiast-rajesh-kapadia/articleshow/61600170.cms<br /><br />Great Rajesh sir, Abhij modak... "weather without boundaries"....ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-87763733015782219462018-09-25T18:46:52.860+05:302018-09-25T18:46:52.860+05:30Saurabh - with all respects to all states...
what ...Saurabh - with all respects to all states...<br />what we require is proper low pressure, depressions to pass through SE India... which is not happening for past few years either in NEM period or SWM period. Either lows move again to NE regions or are duds or move over to AS (like 2017 ockhi). How can region survive with odd thunderstorms and convictions? Agriculture requires proper widespread rains..Let us what happens now 2018.ssethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06630570720915417629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-60643692659129893812018-09-25T11:37:31.534+05:302018-09-25T11:37:31.534+05:30Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology...Credit Australian government bureau of meteorology <br /><br />Issued 25 September 2018<br /> <br />The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.<br /> <br />El Niño WATCH continues; signs of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole emerge<br /> <br />The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. While climate models suggest some easing in the chance of El Niño in 2018, half of the surveyed models still indicate an event is possible. When assessed with current observations, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook therefore remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning the chance of El Niño in 2018 remains around 50%; double the normal likelihood.<br /> <br />Oceanic and atmospheric indicators of ENSO are generally neutral. While sub-surface waters have recently warmed, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are only slightly above average. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index remains weakly negative, and short of El Niño levels. Trade winds have recently been weaker than usual in the western Pacific, and may remain weak in the coming weeks. Weakened trade winds can be a precursor to El Niño development.<br /> <br />Climate models now indicate less warming of the tropical Pacific is likely compared with last month. As a result, fewer models now predict an El Niño in 2018—only three of eight models exceed El Niño thresholds in 2018, and a fourth does so in early 2019. The rest remain neutral. <br /> <br />The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has exceeded the positive IOD threshold (+0.4 °C) in the last fortnight. However, it would take several more weeks of similar values before a positive IOD event is considered established. Model outlooks currently suggest positive IOD values are likely to continue through the austral spring, before returning to neutral values in late November to December. Find out more about the Indian Ocean Dipole.<br /> <br />A positive IOD and El Niño during spring typically means below average rainfall for southern, eastern and central Australia. When a positive IOD and El Niño occur together, the reduction in rainfall is often more widespread.<br /> <br /> <br />More information<br /><br />Media enquiries: (03) 9669 4057 media@bom.gov.au<br /> <br />Next update expected on 9 October 2018NilaY Wankawalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01044520060781153252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31136724.post-35774468959530546422018-09-25T10:36:18.692+05:302018-09-25T10:36:18.692+05:30Hi SSET
I was reacting to the following comment fr...Hi SSET<br />I was reacting to the following comment from you<br /><br />"Who says Rajasthan,Haryana are dry places - it was in past - now no more since last 10 years climate change pattern"<br /><br />That sir is not true. They are arid and there is no increasing trend as far as the monsoon rains are concerned.<br /><br />Here is a link for Haryana.<br /><br />https://www.skymetweather.com/content/weather-news-and-analysis/monsoon-in-punjab-and-haryana/<br /><br />Haryana in the last 13 years has had 10 years of below monsoon rain.<br /><br />If you do not agree please present data/facts. Opinions should be backed by facts.<br /><br />As regards North East monsoon, it starts after 15th October so where is the delay.<br /><br />Monsoon withdrawal is not like a train so just because it will withdraw from West Rajasthan almost 4 weeks behind schedule, does not mean it is going to withdraw from East UP 4 weeks behind schedule. Quite likely the monsoon will be out of East UP on time, that is by the end of September.<br /><br />Regards<br />SaurabhSaurabhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18363965795525890979noreply@blogger.com