Saturday, June 23, 2018




Posted Sunday Night:

As we had mentioned in yesterday's post, South Mumbai City got less rains today as compared to Saturday...17 mms on Sunday (127 mms on Saturday). While Scruz got more, 95 mms on Sunday as compared to 19 mms on Saturday (In 12 hrs). So Sunday average 56 mms.
Monday, Mumbai will see frequent continuation of showers.

Posted Saturday Night:( 23rd June)

Mumbai City received good rainfall on Saturday, with Colaba measuring 127 mms in last 12 hours. However, the Suburbs got much less, with the Scruz station seeing only 19 mms. Average= 73 mms between the 2 stations.
Sunday will see a slight let up in South Mumbai city, while Scruz may get  a bit more quantum wise as compared to Saturday. Average we may see 30-35 mms. Meaning rain spells of medium duration , and no prolonged spell.
But Monday sees a increase with frequent showers portending another rainy day, About 50 mms. Rainy conditions with >50 mms will continue in Mumbai into next week.

Pune: The original drizzles of Pune will be seen from Sunday thru next 5 days. Light to moderate drizzles and cool weather. 
Wet days ahead for Goa, with 45-65 mms of rain /day next 4 days. Means frequent showers.

The South West Monsoon has advanced into South Gujarat Region. also into most of Maharashtra.

As the Monsoon advances from 25th June into North Gujarat, Rajkot  Will get the first heavy showers on 26th/27th June. Ahmadabad will also get its first proper rains from 25th June.

The heat continues in Delhi, with last week of June (23rd) recording 44.8c . The first sprinkle of rain will be commencing from 25th/26th June. Monsoon expected by 1st July.

Monsoon proper expected to cover the country by 5th July. And then after 5th, around 6th/7th, Sindh (Pakistan) may start getting the monsoon showers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kj2rtFqgtEI&t=8s    Mumbai Tak shows interview with Vagaries

19 comments:

NilaY Rajnikant Wankawala said...

Pleasure listening to you as hearing you for the first time Rajesh Kapadia sir. Indeed you are speaking out from your heart in everything you say. Congratulations and all the best for future.

Akshay Shah said...

THis is so good news after a lull of both monsoon as well as positive outlook. This update looks promising and hope that the entire countery gets covered with meaningful rains as predicted around 5th July 2018.

Hope for a super SWM for 2018 for entire India!!!

sset said...

Just like June 2017 Ratnagiri may hit 2000mm June 2018 itself.

http://www.vagaries.in/2017/06/shirgaon-ratnagiri-tops-with-1999-mm-in.html
(see vagaries knowledge blog)

July/August is hotspot for Gujarat rains. Will deadly 2017 floods repeat?

As whole rain has shifted north entire south very less rain... TN / AP heat continues.
Maharashtra very environment conscious apart for tree plantation first state for PLASTIC ban.

Ananth Krishnan said...

Great Rajesh, good to see you in action . Thanks for sharing the link . Ananth

sset said...

IMD puts red alert over Gujarat.

sset said...

Non stop torrential dumps over Navi Mumbai - looks like 100-200mm by tomorrow. It seems most vigorous june compared to last year.

Amit said...

Hello Rajesh Sir,

Any update for Nagpur. When will it rain heavily. As till not getting rains in small amounts in pockets. The humidity and heat is over bearing.
Thanks,
Amit Tare

Unknown said...


Rajesh, wonderful to watch you talk about weather and your own experience. Very candid and lucid. Keep going !

And thanks for all the updates. Spot on as always.

Suresh

sset said...

48 hrs torrential rains over Navi Mumbai. All water falls in full force. Bit surprised Vagaries did not forecast massive rains ??? Entire thane,navi mumbai extreme rains 200-300 mm

sset said...

Cyclonic circulation over North Konkan + Plus Bay low looks like catastrophic dump of 200 - 300 mm today ! Entire konkan exceeds hu

sset said...

With monsoon extra vigorous over konkan, almost quiet over KAR, KER -> again no hope of Cauvery reaching normal state... july/aug/sept will be dominated only by MAHAA,MP,GUJ,RAJ... actually this is a change in climate pattern...

parshuram shinde said...

in santacruz heavy rain in full night n now allso raining heay to very heavyley .very dark clouds here

sset said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sset said...

Modi government instead of spending money on useless bullet trains,water ways between GUJ and MAHA should spend money on linking Konkan might excess rains rivers with parched /drought hit AP,KAR. This will help poor farmers/people provide life giving water.

sset said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Shripad Nadiger said...

Lol..sset.."rewriting geography" ??..Cheerapunji's avg annual rainfall is over 11400+ mm. None of the Konkan and South Gujarat stations can boast of such a massive number.

Akshay Shah said...

Rajesh sir, is there no way that baseless predictions out of gut feeling are shut out? The correct analysis is done only after the season but some guy is creating n-u-i-s-a-an-ce by spreading fake news!!! and now the govt is involved in all this!!! Inspite of all this so-called 'panic' no action is taken!!!

sset said...

GUJ Valsad bombed. 1 month rain in 24 hrs. All belong to 300mm family.

Hope such low/UACs visit my place -> Anantapur,Rayalseema - no water.

sset said...

Gujarat roaring....“Valsad district has been receiving heavy rain since the last two days. Umergam taluka received around 550 mm of rainfall in the last 30 hours"
Even cyclones do not give this kind of rain.... Wish this happens over my place Rayalseema, Anantapur - no water....

Cyclone Warning for Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coast:  Posted:   15 NOV 2018    Time :   11.00 am IST, 053000 UTC Position of "GAJA...