Wednesday, December 18, 2013

A new article in the (so called) Global Warming series will be up on vagaries blog on Sunday night...

Lake Michigan ice a month earlier than usual...See International Page

Graphical Presentation of Mumbai and Pune Temperatures (Hourly) ..See Rohit's Page

Posted Wednesday 18th Evening:

Dense fog in Punjab, Delhi and Western UP have resulted in a sharp fall in day temperatures, with Amritsar not rising over 12.0c on Wednesday, and 13.8c on Tuesday. Most Punjab cities were below 20c in the day. 
Delhi NCR recorded a drop and cold day on Wednesday, with the range around 20c. Mungeshpur was coldest in the day today at 18.3c, while S'Jung aw a high of 22.3c
In UP, Meerut and Hindon high on Wednesday was 19.8c, as versus 20.7c on Tuesday.

Thursday/Friday/Saturday: Sub Continent ( India, Pakistan and Nepal) Precipitation : Nil ! Dry as a Bone ! NEM showers continue in Sri Lanka.

On Saturday, a trough will start to form (East-West) along the Northern plains. On Saturday, this will bring some cloudiness in the Northern parts of the plains of India.

Sunday 22nd, the above mentioned trough would merge with a WD. Overcast weather with light rains expected on Sunday 22nd, in Punjab and parts of Haryana. 

Delhi NCR would be cloudy, with light rain in some areas. As a result, the current fog would abate from Saturday. By Saturday, Days would get cooler to around 20/21c and nights would edge up a few notches. Delhi weather clears up quickly by Monday.

But, Sunday and Monday heavier and more widespread rains are more likely in Northern Pakistan, and Kashmir and HP regions of India. Snow over the middle hills (Gulmar/Pahalgam/Keylong) possible on Sunday and Monday. Srinagar may get some dusting of snow alongwith rains.

Mumbai: Maximum temperatures in Mumbai have been around 32/33c last few days, with E and NE winds blowing. 

The above mentioned trough will be good for Mumbai, as Northern winds will dominate from Thursday itself, and the day temperatures will see a fall of 2/3c till the week end. The current maximum temperatures in Mumbai are 32/33c. Would expect a fall to 29/30c. A very "smoggy" and low visibility Friday night and Saturday morning. Night lows at Scruz would remain around 15/16c till Saturday, with slight rise on Sunday.
Outer townships too could have a similar effect.

I would not anticipate much change South of Mumbai in the Konkan. The E and NE winds would continue South of Mumbai as the effect of the N winds  from the trough would not be far reaching. S.Konkan and Goa would be warmer in the days.
South winds would warm up Vidharbh for the week end.
Gujarat would have strong Northerly winds, cooling down the days appreciably. Nights would also see a fall in temperatures in Gujarat from Thursday through Sunday.

The east west trough instability will bring some stray clouds over Kolkata on Friday. The night temperatures would rise as a result to around 16/17c. On clearing, a drop and a foggy morning on Sunday.

Chennai, what's with the NEM ? Only NE winds blowing. Chennai, with cool, misty mornings with the mercury reading around 19/20c, there are no signs of any revival (of the NEM ) this week till Sunday. The Vagaries NEM page is also running dry !
Chennai AP has received 486 mms ths season, which is 259 less than normal, and city has guaged up 436 mms, again as much as 382 less than normal.
Clear and cool , foggy mornings for Bangalore. Nights around 13/14c.

Karachi will be clear, with the current 17c falling to 14/15c at night. 
Kathmandu will be cold in the 16c- 5c range, with shallow fog in the morning and hazy sunshine in the day.

Southern Peninsula places below 20c today ...(Minimum)...See Rohit's Page


Arpit Sharma said...

Minimum temperature today(19/12/13)...
Una: 3.8c
Nazibabad: 5c (Lowest in the plains)
Chandigarh: 7.8c (Lowest in Haryana)
Amritsar: 8.6c (Lowest in Punjab)
Ayanagar(Delhi): 8.1c (Lowest in Delhi-NCR)
Hindon: 8.8c (2nd in Delhi-NCR)
Pusa: 9.8c

sset said...

Now do we agree with desertification of SE India (TN, Rayalseema, SE interior KAR)??? NEM has come to an end defying all models. IMD has released rain graph from 01-oct-2013 - 15-dec-2013 - clearly shows entire south is in worst scanty zone. In fact next coming years will be worse with extended SWM making NEM almost non-existent. By the way southern India needs to face harsh summer ahead - BANG summer starts from end JAN, TN always summer... Change is obvious NW India (wetter)/SE India (drier) are changing

Rajesh said...

As predicted , Mumbai day temps fell by 2/3c on Thursday. Scruz was 30.8c and Colaba max was 28.5c. Vagaries high was a pleasant 27.4c.
But S.Konkan and Goa remained warmer with R'Giri at 30.9c and Panjim at 33.0c.
SMumbai had shallow fog (smog) with visibility reducing to 800-1000 metres.

Rawat said...

Most of north indian cities including lucknow kanpur showing rising min temp trend is it because of approching WD of fog

Vinod Desai said...

Last night i think should be coldest night this season in mumbai

Strong Western Disturbance is seen affecting the country and the subcontinent. Heavy rain and snow reported from Himalayas, and rain/thunder...