Sunday, December 08, 2013

Tuesday Night: 

If we continue from the last post (Monday Night), we see the dry air from the West of the cyclone has covered the entire Southern Semi Circle as expected. The clouding has weakened and so has the system. At just about T3.7 with winds in the Northern segmant at around (estimated) 60 knts and pressure estimated at 990 mb. 
Located at 15.1N and 85E, it is now just hovering around a point like a top about to loose speed.

Will weaken and dissipate before reaching any land mass as mentioned yesterday. The dry air will catch up on Madi. 

As estimated few days back, as Madi "winds up" later, an Easterly wave forms ( from 12th) in the Southern Bay and expands Westwards in a couple of days.

Lowest minimums as on Tuesday Morning: : Orissa @ 6 c ..(Phulbani) ..Maharashtra : 6.8 c (Ahmadnagar), Pune was 7.2c. ..
Karnataka :7 c ( Bijapur) ..Andhra Pradesh .. 8.5 c (Adilabad), 
Ooty 5.2c, Kodai 8.2c, Chennai (MNBKM) 18c.

NCR was cold too, with Pusa University going down to 6c and most places in NCR around 8/9c.

All due to High pressure and bringing in of dry air...Rohit and Abhijit tell of these low humidity figures along West coast:, Ratnagiri 13%, Mumbai 19%, Thane 22%,  Pune 19% Nasik 18%, Panji 30%, Mangalore 28%, but Honavar was low at 14%. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Monday Night Post:

"Madi" is still a Severe Cyclone, with core winds at 60 knts and pressure 970 mb at T4.8...Located , having moved due North in last 12 hrs, at 15.3N and 84.7E. 
Will track NNE slowly and weaken.

A comparatively dry patch of air also runs along the Eastern coast, and is seen seeping into the southern half of the cyclone semi circle. However, the wrapping around the cyclone is slow. 
Since large patches of dry air are to the West, Madi is going to encounter dry air and weaken rapidly after 24 hrs. System most likely to dissipate in the West-Central Bay itself. ( Before hitting land as a system).

Very dry humidity conditions were observed along the West Coast of India, North of Goa. Maily due to strong NE winds blowing from the land into the sea. NE winds due to HPA in NW India.
Ratnagiri had an unusual low humidity of 8%, Mumbai low humidity was 16 % and inland Pune was very dry at 9% humidity !

This extremely dry patch runs from South Gujarat to Goa. Dry air (too a lesser extent) runs Southwards towards the Kerala coast, ( Less humid as winds are Northerly here) and covering the Southern Seas around Sri Lanka. 

Mungeshpur in Delhi NCR had the coldest day temperature on Monday at 23.3c. Other places in NCR were around 24/25c. Minimum is around 9c.
In the Northern plains, Adampur in Punjab was the coldest at 4.4c.

Karachi will be dry and cool, with minimum at 13/14c. Sukkur expected to be between 11-13c, while Hyderabad Sindh can see lows around 11c. Nawabshah will see a low of around 8/9c.

Dry and pleasant for Kathmandu. Maybe some fair weather cumulus clouds by afternoon, but otherwise days around 20c, and nights pleasant at 6/7c.

Sunday Night latest shows Madi having moved North to 13.3N and 84.5E, with winds at 65 knts. Weakening will start once the dry air covers the Northern and Western periphery...still dry air just about approaching the Southern side.
But, the system will continue to move North and then NE. Further re curving Southwards is not immediately feasible at the current strength.

A brief Note on why the forecast Models have changed their Track for Madi: Sunday Evening

Most of the International Models and IMD forecasts have changed their forecast track for Madi. We see a new U-Turn, that is a SW track after 12-24 hrs. 
The reason for changing : Dry air is seen seemingly wrapping around the system. Now, that is not un common. Lehar had dry air wrapping from the NE and choked the cyclone as we mentioned in vagaries.
This sytem is not yet getting choked, and the dry air is covering it from the South. A stream is sweeping from Sri Lanka, and is seen now to some extent to the South of Madi. It is just about seeping into the SE outer periphery.
Now, it is assumed, that this will weaken the cyclone. Once it is weakened, the upper air jet streams will loose their grip on the cyclone, so, the contention is it will stop its Northerly track. 
Once in the grip of lower winds, the system as a depression or WML, will get steered alongwith the NE winds.
BUT, all this depends on the initial parameter, the dry air wrapping it.

I would NOT jump to any fast or hasty conclusion of announcing a SW track, till I see the extent to which the much forecasted dry air covers it, and how fast. Because, if it is slow in weakening it, the system could well continue its Northward march.

Let us observe and monitor for another 12 hours before drawing a conclusion...

Rohit's Page with Maharashtra Lows today...


Abhijit Modak said...

Some Maharashtra cities min temp below for today(09-12-2013) :

Pune 6.9c
Nashik 8.4c
Nagpur 10.1c
Aurangabad 11.0c
Akola 11.2c
Solapur 11.6c
Ratnagiri 15.1c
Mumbai(SCZ) 17.3c
Panji, Goa 17.8c

Some around Mumbai AWS min temp for today :

Karjat 11.6c
Palghar 14.2c

Vishal said...

I was near Alibaug (Munavali) on week end. Very chiiled morning. Must be around 15C @ 5 AM Sunday. Its just 12 kms from Alibag , parallel to Sea line.But shortlived as day progressed the happiness melted away in the Sun!

Anonymous said...

Tornado (Watersprout) spotted near Cuddalore on Dec 6 during the formation of Madi..

Ron said...

temp seem to have dipped in mumbai since last 2 days as predicted. But the afternoon heat is resulting in a huge temp difference.

Neeraj said...

Both min and max temp a bit above normal - esp the min temp. Any chance of it falling further in the coming days ? As per forecast models , it is slated to stay this way for at least 10 more days.

SVT said...

Today got to be this season's chilliest morning in Mumbai.

Rajesh said...

Can expect a minor fall after the Bay gets silent, except for the easterly wave. But that will not have any effctt on Nepal. A major WD is not anywhere in sight soon.

Rajesh said...

CP: Please can u mention your name for a one to one chat ? Thanks.
As per my reading, the anomaly chart you showed is for 850 hp winds and OLR. This is basically seen to monitor the MJO.
I have mentioned an easterly wave on the 7th...and would form after the cyclone clears the way. This was put up about 4 days earlier. The cyclone behavior is slow. But, as soon as the cyclone dissipates, an easterly wave is on stream, maybe a day later than anticipated.

Rajesh said...

Now as things settle down, and HPA takes initial charge, the minimums around Delhi start their fall. Though a few days late than expected (we had expected 2nd week of Dec in our beginning of month forecast). Pusa falls to 6.2c and other lows are between 8 an 9c..

Rajesh said...

good information from Rohit Aroskar:
"In the interiors(outback) of Maharashtra ; in winters , temp of 29 / 09 are common ..

The temp.and humidity pan out as follows :
11.30 am : 25 c / 36 % , 2.30 pm :28 c / 28 % , 5.30 pm : 26 c/ 32% , 8.30 pm : 17 c / 70 % , 11.30 pm : 13 c / 85 % , 2.30 am : 11 c / 90 % , 5.30 am : 09 c / 95 % , 8.30 am : 14 c / 75 % ..

a) temp below 10 c : 4.30 am to 7.30 am
b) temp below 15 c : 9.30 pm(previous day) to 9 am
c) temp below 20 c : 6.30 pm(previous day) to 9.30 am
d) temp below 25 c : 5.30 pm(previous day) to 11.30 am
e) temp above 25 c : 11.30 am to 5.30 pm
..Max temp is recorded around 3-4 pm and min temp around 6-7 am .."

emkay said...

So has Madi taken a SW ly turn as reported by IMD.

sset said...

Disastrous end for cyclone LEHAR disappeared without single drop of rain over TN/SE interior KAR/Rayalseema. 2013 season of contrasts - best SWM of longest duration 15 BB lows over central India(MAHA,GUJ,RAJ,MP,Orissa,chattisgarh) followed by worst NEM 3 cyclones without single drop of rain. High time deep research is done on NEM weakening before much of southern India desertification.

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