Stats and Analysis Page Updated bt Inputs from Arpit and Rohit
BB-1 Update ( Saturday12 noon IST)As on Saturday Morning (IST), NRL has announced the formation of a Low Level Circulation, an UAC and prelude to a Low at 3N and 84E. This is the initial formation stage of our BB-1, announced in vagaries yesterday (Friday).
After reading and deciphering almost 8 International models, we see 3 different tracks shown by them as possible route of the system.
Some models show varied forecasts:
1. The system ,as a cyclone, hitting the TN coast, and tracking N/NW into the Interiors and finally dissipating over Vidharbh.
2. Some show the system heading straight North towards the Orissa coast, and striking there.
3. Some decipher the track as hitting the Southern India coast and re-emerging in the Arabian Sea, and moving up to 15N.
All models have their justifications and methods of tracking, as computerized deciphering varies on the input and scenario possibilities as per the data feeding.
Vagaries currently shows its track as the " red dotted Line " on the map below...and will try to track the path soon.
We are still 10 days from actual striking of Land..but, as we get some definite and concrete indications, vagaries will put it up...as we would like it to be with minimum changes and variations.
Another LLCC has formed at 4S and 80E. This is also mentioned below.
What I would like to observe is the final outcome (the track that BB-1 and the Southern system take), when the actual "8" formation winds take shape...and of course the other parameters like LWD, jet streams and ridge line, SST and upper winds are being watched.
I do Not think that the dates mentioned in the MW-3 for the SWM will alter, as we were anyway waiting for a Low to appear in the Bay. Would not change any arrival date as yet...
Weather for the Weekend ( 4th,5th and 6th May) on the Sub-Continent:..Important: See Note on BB-1 Below..
The conditions on the weekend will be showing a slight shift of the Eastern trough towards W.Bengal. Hot, dry winds from the NW will heat up the Central Regions, and the Sindh region of Pakistan.
Hence, precipitation wise, we will see thundershowers in Northern Kerala and adjoining Southern Karnataka.
But, thundershowers shift into Bangladesh and W.Bengal on Sunday and Monday.
Sunday, W.Bengal will get the scattered thundershowers. Thundershowers will also appear in adjoining Eastern Nepal and Kathmandu.
Bangladesh gets heavy thundershowers on Sunday and particularly on Monday.
Due to strong hot, dry winds from the NW, Vidharbh and adjoining MP region will heat up to severe heat wave conditions on Sunday and Monday...where the highest could touch 48c in the odd city...
Sindh region of Pakistan may be gripped by a heat wave from Sunday, and Karachi may touch 41c and Sukkur 42/43c, and some interior towns in Balochistan or Sindh (Turbat, Nawabshah or Dadu) may scale 47/48c...
Mumbai: Weekend will be warm and stuffy, with the temperature range between 33/34 - 25/26c at Scruz.
Outer townships ( Thane, Panvel, Badlapur) will be hot at around 39c and will get stuffy at night.
For the region,we may see cumulus clouds partly covering and drifting in the the skies from Monday...
Pune: Warm sunny weekend with the days around 39/40c..maybe a bit less humid now...nights will be around 23c...
Kolkata: Around 37c, but thunder and rain possible on Sunday. Monday will be squally with stronger storm, possibly very heavy in some areas.
Delhi NCR: Hot and dry weekend, with the day shooting up on Sunday by a degree or two...
Surat: Warm, dry and sunny with days around 34/35c..
Nagpur: Extremely hot, very hot, with the possibility of the day temperature on Monday going to 45/46c, and Monday morning minimum at 30c !
Note on Status of BB-1:
A low pressure, BB-1, develops in the Southern Bay, SE off Sri Lanka around the 6th of May. Strengthened by various factors, the system will deepen into a depression by the 8th and a deep depression by the 9th/10th.
Due to "high" resistance initially,BB-1 will not move beyond the 10N line till the 10th, and may just come upto East off Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka , east coast in particular, gets very heavy rains from the 7th of May...
Very soon, thereafter, indications are there of a rapid North wards movement due to favourable conditions, and possibly deepen more on its track.
Vagaries will monitor the strength of BB-1, now a Deep Depression and its track, as it moves past Chennai after the 11th of May.
Vagaries will announce if necessary the "Cyclone alert" once the strength and track of BB-1 is defined.
At the same date, another strong system would have formed S/SW off BB-1, but below the Equator at 8S. Its going to complicate matters for the SWM...there will be hardly any clouding for the Andaman Seas..?? But our Andaman date could remain intact..??