Wednesday, May 08, 2013

 Next Update and MW-4 (Part -2)  will be published at 11.30 pm IST on Saturday
BB-1 Update              Cyclone "Mahasen" forms under rapid Intensification             >>>>>>>>>


Posted on 10th May @ 10.15 pm IST..Track and Posiyion of BB-1 Re-Produced on previous Map..





The rainfall during the 4 months of SWM of some important cities of India on Stats and Analysis Page...sent by Arpit 

30 comments:

ugaap said...

The Low Pressure in Bay of Bengal is located 5.4N 89.8E.

again going by visualization of satellite image I expect the next update to place the center SouthEast of current location.

Hence the ultimate track would start from more Eastwards than shown in track.

rajesh said...

Ugaap: Yes, could be possible..Thanks.

sam khan said...

Arabian sea, monsoon branch is gathering momentum .showing good progress.

Nagpur Star said...

First 46 deg of 2013 in Nagpur. Isnt it early.
Heat required for good monsoon :)

rajesh said...

Shitij: Replying to your query put on fb..for more readership.
1. Forecast is specifically given for next 3 days...and the stregth of BB-1 is given till 13th May.
2. From the strength after 13th, we will see the deepening of the system and then estimate...nowhere have i said anything wii "prevent the system from strengthening". I am watchfull, as i would like to judge the growth of BB-1 after seeing the behavior of the WD in motion now....

Nagpur Star (Amit): No, it is not early, in fact if you are following the MW series, you will see from the MW-3 of 2010 and 2009 how the temperatures have risen in May..

Sam: Do you remember the "false alarm" I put up in my earlier article ?

Vijayanand said...

Very humid weather in bangalore. It clear , sunny and humid right now.

Vijayanand said...

I can see huge TS east and south east of bangalore from my office. I guess its about 80 kms from the city. Hope it comes in and does not slid south towards anekal and kanakapura.

Vijayanand said...

On doppler radar, find the TS east and south east of bangalore to be quite big. Its almost 60 kms from North to south.

sam khan said...

Thanks for the reminder, Rajesh sir,Today in calangute Goa there was a moderate shower early in the morning, since i have come on a holiday here in Goa, weather is much comfy then Mumbai.

shankar kiran said...

had some super rains in bangalore..very violent thunderstorms

shankar kiran said...

had some super rains in bangalore..very violent thunderstorms

shankar kiran said...

bangalore city-21mm
bangalore airport-17mm

Vijayanand said...

Nice rain yesterday in south bangalore. Rain started around 8.00 pm as drizzle. From 10.10 to 10.30 heavy rain. Best spell of the year in terms of duration.

rajesh said...

Shankar/Vijayanand: Thanks for the up date...vagaries had put a darker blue (10-25 mms range as per key below), for Bangalore...lesser rains now next 2/3 days

Vijayanand said...

Thanks Rajesh sir.
Wish the rains would last for few more days in bangalore.
Its a clear and humid day here. On doppler radar find TS around 120 kms east of bangalore. Not sure whether they can come in later today.

Vijayanand said...

Heavy rain in north bangalore areas around Hebbal. Nothing in south bangalore.

Arun Kumar said...

rajesh sir,
heavy rain witnessed in south bangalore on yesterday for 30 mins. hope it will continue for today also. thanks for your forecast.

shankar kiran said...

thank you rajesh sir...the rains today were actually heavy than yesterday in north bangalore and it was a hail storm today...nothing in central and south b'lore areas

Arpit Sharma said...

Partly cloudy sky here in NCR today...Some TSs seen over Punjab,North Rajasthan and Northwestern Haryana...

shankar kiran said...

another spell of severe thunderstorm lashed bangalore at around 8.30 and still continuing ...this is the rainiest day so far for north bangalore...i expect at around 60mm here

sset said...

Bay low pressure seems to move NE towards Bangladesh/Orissa/Andamans... Very very bad for south India. We all expected TN/KAR/AP. I guess arrival Western disturbances has turned low away from South India.

Many places south and some in North super hot > 45degrees inspite of low over the sea. very disappointed...

sset said...

Bay low pressure seems to move NE towards Bangladesh/Orissa/Andamans... Very very bad for south India. We all expected TN/KAR/AP. I guess arrival Western disturbances has turned low away from South India.

Many places south and some in North super hot > 45degrees inspite of low over the sea. very disappointed...

rajesh said...

sset: vagaries has always maintained that the storm will pass by the South coast..see from the very initial map put up last week...
TN stations are always noted for their 40c and above..
Bangalore getting good showers today (Friday)..

shankar kiran said...

bangalore city-14mm
bangalore airport-13mm

shankar kiran said...

yesterday very heavy rains over northern areas .heavier rains didn't went south...

sam khan said...

Rajesh sir, keeping your point in my mind,about the 'false alarm' regarding the arabian sea monsoon branch' yet' why it looks like plently of monsoon clouds developing and moving quickly towards kerela coast ?.

rajesh said...

sam: there is some confusion , or my explanations are not proper. The "false alarm" was said for the MJO which had developed as a weak phase around 1st/2nd May..and it was thus mentioned.
The MJO has since moved east, and what was sais on 30th april was that MJO moves east and creates a conducive environment for a low..which happened..and moved into the Arabian Sea.
Now , BB-1 is another story. The clouding I meant as "false alarm" is gone and over last week, and current clouding is a rush of westerlies towards BB-1.
can you post your e mail, or otherwise e mail me directly, maybe can explain better..

sam khan said...

Thank's Rajesh sir for clearing my doubt's.my email id- shamshadk110@gmail.com.
sir,tonite what time are you going to post the next part of the monsoon watch series.

rohitaros said...

RATIO OF DEPRESSION /STORMS IN MAY- BAY :ARABIAN SEA = 3:1

PATHS OBSERVED :
IN THE BAY : 60% TOWARDS BANGLADESH/BURMA
30 % CROSS INDIAN COAST
10% DISSIPATE IN SEA

IN ARABIAN SEA : 77 % WESTWARDS TO ARABIA COASTS OR DISSIPATE IN SEA
23 % MAINLY GUJARAT / NORTH MAHARASHTRA COASTS

GENERALLY, POST MONSOON(OCT,NOV) STORMS ARE BIGGER AND INTENSE THAN PRE MONSOON STORMS (APR,MAY)..

Ron said...

so is it dying in the sea itself??Or more projections later...??